Recent USGS monitoring shows five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in February through April, followed by a three-week lull with no further events. This pattern, consistent with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such quakes annually and the inherent Poisson variability of seismic rates, has driven trader consensus toward a total of eight or fewer by June 30. Ongoing real-time catalogs indicate no elevated precursors on major fault systems, while typical mid-year pacing and the short remaining window reinforce the current market-implied odds favoring lower totals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno? (Colpi superiori)
≤8 50%
10 11%
11 11%
9 9%
$90,295 Vol.
$90,295 Vol.
≤8
54%
9
18%
10
16%
11
11%
12
7%
13
3%
14+
3%
≤8 50%
10 11%
11 11%
9 9%
$90,295 Vol.
$90,295 Vol.
≤8
54%
9
18%
10
16%
11
11%
12
7%
13
3%
14+
3%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS monitoring shows five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in February through April, followed by a three-week lull with no further events. This pattern, consistent with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such quakes annually and the inherent Poisson variability of seismic rates, has driven trader consensus toward a total of eight or fewer by June 30. Ongoing real-time catalogs indicate no elevated precursors on major fault systems, while typical mid-year pacing and the short remaining window reinforce the current market-implied odds favoring lower totals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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