As of mid-August 2026, roughly 10–11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide according to USGS data, tracking the long-term global average of about 15 annually. Most events have clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, including recent M7.7 shocks near Indonesia, an M7.4 in Colombia, and an M7.8 in the Philippines. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin (42%) over 17–19 (37%) reflects this pace, with the four-plus remaining months likely to add a typical 4–6 events absent major aftershock sequences or unusual strain release. Year-to-year variability stems from tectonic processes rather than any long-term increase in frequency, leaving room for modest upside if clustering intensifies before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore nel 2026?
14–16 41%
17–19 38%
20+ 13.4%
11–13 10%
$1,374,496 Vol.
$1,374,496 Vol.
31 dic 2026
8–10
1%
11–13
10%
14–16
41%
17–19
38%
20+
13%
14–16 41%
17–19 38%
20+ 13.4%
11–13 10%
$1,374,496 Vol.
$1,374,496 Vol.
31 dic 2026
8–10
$146,564 Vol.
1%
11–13
$415,689 Vol.
10%
14–16
$187,957 Vol.
41%
17–19
$212,534 Vol.
38%
20+
$67,719 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of mid-August 2026, roughly 10–11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide according to USGS data, tracking the long-term global average of about 15 annually. Most events have clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, including recent M7.7 shocks near Indonesia, an M7.4 in Colombia, and an M7.8 in the Philippines. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin (42%) over 17–19 (37%) reflects this pace, with the four-plus remaining months likely to add a typical 4–6 events absent major aftershock sequences or unusual strain release. Year-to-year variability stems from tectonic processes rather than any long-term increase in frequency, leaving room for modest upside if clustering intensifies before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,374,496Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of mid-August 2026, roughly 10–11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide according to USGS data, tracking the long-term global average of about 15 annually. Most events have clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, including recent M7.7 shocks near Indonesia, an M7.4 in Colombia, and an M7.8 in the Philippines. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin (42%) over 17–19 (37%) reflects this pace, with the four-plus remaining months likely to add a typical 4–6 events absent major aftershock sequences or unusual strain release. Year-to-year variability stems from tectonic processes rather than any long-term increase in frequency, leaving room for modest upside if clustering intensifies before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,374,496Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, roughly 10–11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred worldwide according to USGS data, tracking the long-term global average of about 15 annually. Most events have clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, including recent M7.7 shocks near Indonesia, an M7.4 in Colombia, and an M7.8 in the Philippines. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin (42%) over 17–19 (37%) reflects this pace, with the four-plus remaining months likely to add a typical 4–6 events absent major aftershock sequences or unusual strain release. Year-to-year variability stems from tectonic processes rather than any long-term increase in frequency, leaving room for modest upside if clustering intensifies before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Ci saranno esattamente 3 terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 10 agosto al 16 agosto?
77%
Sì
Ci saranno esattamente 0 terremoti di magnitudo 6,5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 17 agosto al 23 agosto?
42%
Sì
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
10%
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