Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions, bringing persistent cloud cover and scattered showers to Metro Manila, represent the main driver behind trader consensus favoring a 30°C high for August 16. PAGASA forecasts indicate maximum temperatures of 29–30°C under these patterns, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from rainfall limit afternoon heating below the seasonal average near 31°C. Market-implied odds reflect this, with 30°C and 31°C outcomes capturing over 75% combined probability while higher thresholds remain discounted due to the established wet-season regime. Short-term model updates from official agencies could adjust these assessments if clearer skies develop.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Manila il 16 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Manila il 16 agosto?
30°C 48%
31°C 28%
29°C 17%
32°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 ago 2026
24°C o inferiore
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
17%
30°C
48%
31°C
28%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C o superiore
1%
30°C 48%
31°C 28%
29°C 17%
32°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 ago 2026
24°C o inferiore
$300 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$147 Vol.
1%
27°C
$228 Vol.
1%
28°C
$560 Vol.
4%
29°C
$1,184 Vol.
17%
30°C
$756 Vol.
48%
31°C
$645 Vol.
28%
32°C
$291 Vol.
5%
33°C
$144 Vol.
1%
34°C o superiore
$103 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions, bringing persistent cloud cover and scattered showers to Metro Manila, represent the main driver behind trader consensus favoring a 30°C high for August 16. PAGASA forecasts indicate maximum temperatures of 29–30°C under these patterns, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from rainfall limit afternoon heating below the seasonal average near 31°C. Market-implied odds reflect this, with 30°C and 31°C outcomes capturing over 75% combined probability while higher thresholds remain discounted due to the established wet-season regime. Short-term model updates from official agencies could adjust these assessments if clearer skies develop.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$4,680Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions, bringing persistent cloud cover and scattered showers to Metro Manila, represent the main driver behind trader consensus favoring a 30°C high for August 16. PAGASA forecasts indicate maximum temperatures of 29–30°C under these patterns, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from rainfall limit afternoon heating below the seasonal average near 31°C. Market-implied odds reflect this, with 30°C and 31°C outcomes capturing over 75% combined probability while higher thresholds remain discounted due to the established wet-season regime. Short-term model updates from official agencies could adjust these assessments if clearer skies develop.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,680Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions, bringing persistent cloud cover and scattered showers to Metro Manila, represent the main driver behind trader consensus favoring a 30°C high for August 16. PAGASA forecasts indicate maximum temperatures of 29–30°C under these patterns, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from rainfall limit afternoon heating below the seasonal average near 31°C. Market-implied odds reflect this, with 30°C and 31°C outcomes capturing over 75% combined probability while higher thresholds remain discounted due to the established wet-season regime. Short-term model updates from official agencies could adjust these assessments if clearer skies develop.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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