Trump's second term has featured a marked rise in combative rhetoric, with analyses showing profanity and personal attacks in over 90% of recent speeches and social media posts, compared to roughly 40% in the first term. Daily prediction markets on whether he will insult someone on a given date through June 30 have consistently priced Yes above 90%, reflecting repeated public statements targeting journalists and political figures with terms like "stupid," "corrupt," or "low IQ." Recent examples include exchanges with CNN's Kaitlan Collins and NBC's Kristen Welker in early June. Scheduled press events, Truth Social activity, and ongoing policy debates remain the main near-term catalysts, though a quiet period without direct personal references could still shift shorter-term odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$594,713 Vol.
30 giu 2026
18 giugno
91%
25 giugno
92%
27 giugno
91%
15 giugno
92%
16 giugno
92%
17 giugno
93%
19 giugno
93%
20 giugno
93%
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92%
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93%
23 giugno
93%
24 giugno
94%
26 giugno
93%
28 giugno
93%
29 giugno
92%
30 giugno
93%
$594,713 Vol.
18 giugno
$3,312 Vol.
91%
25 giugno
$347 Vol.
92%
27 giugno
$360 Vol.
91%
15 giugno
$9,358 Vol.
92%
16 giugno
$1,302 Vol.
92%
17 giugno
$1,584 Vol.
93%
19 giugno
$418 Vol.
93%
20 giugno
$278 Vol.
93%
21 giugno
$2,816 Vol.
92%
22 giugno
$390 Vol.
93%
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$390 Vol.
93%
24 giugno
$243 Vol.
94%
26 giugno
$220 Vol.
93%
28 giugno
$859 Vol.
93%
29 giugno
$1,445 Vol.
92%
30 giugno
$237 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's second term has featured a marked rise in combative rhetoric, with analyses showing profanity and personal attacks in over 90% of recent speeches and social media posts, compared to roughly 40% in the first term. Daily prediction markets on whether he will insult someone on a given date through June 30 have consistently priced Yes above 90%, reflecting repeated public statements targeting journalists and political figures with terms like "stupid," "corrupt," or "low IQ." Recent examples include exchanges with CNN's Kaitlan Collins and NBC's Kristen Welker in early June. Scheduled press events, Truth Social activity, and ongoing policy debates remain the main near-term catalysts, though a quiet period without direct personal references could still shift shorter-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 1, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
Volume
$594,713Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's second term has featured a marked rise in combative rhetoric, with analyses showing profanity and personal attacks in over 90% of recent speeches and social media posts, compared to roughly 40% in the first term. Daily prediction markets on whether he will insult someone on a given date through June 30 have consistently priced Yes above 90%, reflecting repeated public statements targeting journalists and political figures with terms like "stupid," "corrupt," or "low IQ." Recent examples include exchanges with CNN's Kaitlan Collins and NBC's Kristen Welker in early June. Scheduled press events, Truth Social activity, and ongoing policy debates remain the main near-term catalysts, though a quiet period without direct personal references could still shift shorter-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$594,713Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's second term has featured a marked rise in combative rhetoric, with analyses showing profanity and personal attacks in over 90% of recent speeches and social media posts, compared to roughly 40% in the first term. Daily prediction markets on whether he will insult someone on a given date through June 30 have consistently priced Yes above 90%, reflecting repeated public statements targeting journalists and political figures with terms like "stupid," "corrupt," or "low IQ." Recent examples include exchanges with CNN's Kaitlan Collins and NBC's Kristen Welker in early June. Scheduled press events, Truth Social activity, and ongoing policy debates remain the main near-term catalysts, though a quiet period without direct personal references could still shift shorter-term odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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