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Politica·Trump

Chi firmerà l'accordo USA x Iran?

icon for Chi firmerà l'accordo USA x Iran?
Politica·Trump

Chi firmerà l'accordo USA x Iran?

NUOVO
1 ago 2026
Polymarket

$77 Vol.

Polymarket

Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan

$0 Vol.

45%

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa

$0 Vol.

45%

Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah

$0 Vol.

44%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$17 Vol.

44%

Mohammed bin Salman

$0 Vol.

44%

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

$0 Vol.

44%

Re Abdullah II

$0 Vol.

44%

Shehbaz Sharif

$0 Vol.

43%

Marco Rubio

$0 Vol.

43%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$0 Vol.

43%

Abbas Araghchi

$0 Vol.

43%

Steve Witkoff

$0 Vol.

43%

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$0 Vol.

43%

Donald Trump

$0 Vol.

43%

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

$0 Vol.

37%

Ali Larijani

$15 Vol.

33%

Mojtaba Khamenei

$0 Vol.

28%

Pete Hegseth

$12 Vol.

18%

JD Vance

$33 Vol.

57%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpile, and easing sanctions, with President Trump and Iranian officials exchanging demands through mediators. Recent US strikes on Iranian targets in early June 2026, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses, have heightened tensions and prompted renewed warnings of escalation if no agreement emerges. Both sides cite prior breakdowns, including 2025 talks and the 12-Day War, while Iran seeks simultaneous concessions and asset releases, and the US emphasizes verifiable nuclear restraints. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether current brinkmanship yields a signed deal or renewed conflict before key deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$77
Data di fine
1 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Jun 11, 2026, 8:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpile, and easing sanctions, with President Trump and Iranian officials exchanging demands through mediators. Recent US strikes on Iranian targets in early June 2026, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses, have heightened tensions and prompted renewed warnings of escalation if no agreement emerges. Both sides cite prior breakdowns, including 2025 talks and the 12-Day War, while Iran seeks simultaneous concessions and asset releases, and the US emphasizes verifiable nuclear restraints. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether current brinkmanship yields a signed deal or renewed conflict before key deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$77
Data di fine
1 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Jun 11, 2026, 8:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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"Chi firmerà l'accordo USA x Iran?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 19 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "JD Vance" a 57%, seguito da "Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan" a 45%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 57¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 57% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Chi firmerà l'accordo USA x Iran?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jun 12, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Chi firmerà l'accordo USA x Iran?", esplora i 19 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Chi firmerà l'accordo USA x Iran?" è "JD Vance" a 57%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 57% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan" a 45%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Chi firmerà l'accordo USA x Iran?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.