Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with direct involvement from Israel, remain stalled following President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s 14-point counterproposal on May 11. Core disputes center on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile limits, sanctions relief, war reparations, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, has come under strain from recent exchanges of fire, while Israel continues operations against Iranian proxies in Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated the broader conflict is not over, and Israeli analysts emphasize red lines that include dismantling enrichment infrastructure and curbing proxy funding. These entrenched positions and mutual distrust continue to limit prospects for a permanent bilateral peace agreement in the near term.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$888,523 Vol.
31 mag 2026
May 31
3%
30 giugno
16%
$888,523 Vol.
May 31
$255,673 Vol.
3%
30 giugno
$318,235 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with direct involvement from Israel, remain stalled following President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s 14-point counterproposal on May 11. Core disputes center on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile limits, sanctions relief, war reparations, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, has come under strain from recent exchanges of fire, while Israel continues operations against Iranian proxies in Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated the broader conflict is not over, and Israeli analysts emphasize red lines that include dismantling enrichment infrastructure and curbing proxy funding. These entrenched positions and mutual distrust continue to limit prospects for a permanent bilateral peace agreement in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volume
$888,523Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with direct involvement from Israel, remain stalled following President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s 14-point counterproposal on May 11. Core disputes center on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile limits, sanctions relief, war reparations, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, has come under strain from recent exchanges of fire, while Israel continues operations against Iranian proxies in Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated the broader conflict is not over, and Israeli analysts emphasize red lines that include dismantling enrichment infrastructure and curbing proxy funding. These entrenched positions and mutual distrust continue to limit prospects for a permanent bilateral peace agreement in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$888,523Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with direct involvement from Israel, remain stalled following President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s 14-point counterproposal on May 11. Core disputes center on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, ballistic missile limits, sanctions relief, war reparations, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, has come under strain from recent exchanges of fire, while Israel continues operations against Iranian proxies in Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated the broader conflict is not over, and Israeli analysts emphasize red lines that include dismantling enrichment infrastructure and curbing proxy funding. These entrenched positions and mutual distrust continue to limit prospects for a permanent bilateral peace agreement in the near term.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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