**Ongoing military tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-February levels.** Iranian forces have maintained restrictions and threats against vessels since late February strikes, with recent data showing near-zero verified commercial transits in mid-June amid GPS jamming, attacks on shipping, and IRGC warnings. A brief April ceasefire collapsed, and subsequent negotiations stalled without agreement on safe passage or Iranian demands. While the Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the threat assessment from “critical” to “severe” around June 7 after some safe transits via southern routes, overall volumes remain minimal—far short of the 130–160 daily crossings seen before the conflict. U.S. naval assistance has enabled limited movements, yet recent Iranian strikes on regional targets and statements tying reopening to U.S. force withdrawals signal persistent barriers. Traders assign “No” a 58.5% implied probability because full normalization by July 15 would require rapid de-escalation and verified high-volume traffic, neither of which current diplomatic or military developments support.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro il 15 luglio?
Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro il 15 luglio?
Sì
NUOVO
$45,737 Vol.
NUOVO
$45,737 Vol.
15 lug 2026
Sì
NUOVO
$45,737 Vol.
NUOVO
$45,737 Vol.
15 lug 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing military tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-February levels.** Iranian forces have maintained restrictions and threats against vessels since late February strikes, with recent data showing near-zero verified commercial transits in mid-June amid GPS jamming, attacks on shipping, and IRGC warnings.
A brief April ceasefire collapsed, and subsequent negotiations stalled without agreement on safe passage or Iranian demands. While the Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the threat assessment from “critical” to “severe” around June 7 after some safe transits via southern routes, overall volumes remain minimal—far short of the 130–160 daily crossings seen before the conflict. U.S. naval assistance has enabled limited movements, yet recent Iranian strikes on regional targets and statements tying reopening to U.S. force withdrawals signal persistent barriers.
Traders assign “No” a 58.5% implied probability because full normalization by July 15 would require rapid de-escalation and verified high-volume traffic, neither of which current diplomatic or military developments support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$45,737Data di fine
15 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing military tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-February levels.** Iranian forces have maintained restrictions and threats against vessels since late February strikes, with recent data showing near-zero verified commercial transits in mid-June amid GPS jamming, attacks on shipping, and IRGC warnings.
A brief April ceasefire collapsed, and subsequent negotiations stalled without agreement on safe passage or Iranian demands. While the Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the threat assessment from “critical” to “severe” around June 7 after some safe transits via southern routes, overall volumes remain minimal—far short of the 130–160 daily crossings seen before the conflict. U.S. naval assistance has enabled limited movements, yet recent Iranian strikes on regional targets and statements tying reopening to U.S. force withdrawals signal persistent barriers.
Traders assign “No” a 58.5% implied probability because full normalization by July 15 would require rapid de-escalation and verified high-volume traffic, neither of which current diplomatic or military developments support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$54,209Data di fine
15 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing military tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-February levels.** Iranian forces have maintained restrictions and threats against vessels since late February strikes, with recent data showing near-zero verified commercial transits in mid-June amid GPS jamming, attacks on shipping, and IRGC warnings. A brief April ceasefire collapsed, and subsequent negotiations stalled without agreement on safe passage or Iranian demands. While the Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the threat assessment from “critical” to “severe” around June 7 after some safe transits via southern routes, overall volumes remain minimal—far short of the 130–160 daily crossings seen before the conflict. U.S. naval assistance has enabled limited movements, yet recent Iranian strikes on regional targets and statements tying reopening to U.S. force withdrawals signal persistent barriers. Traders assign “No” a 58.5% implied probability because full normalization by July 15 would require rapid de-escalation and verified high-volume traffic, neither of which current diplomatic or military developments support.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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