Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against an Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management by June 15 due to the absence of any finalized protocol or joint statement despite months of bilateral discussions on monitoring, toll systems, and coordinated navigation. Recent security incidents in early June, including reported Iranian missile and drone activity alongside U.S. maritime interdictions, have sustained tensions that complicate formal cooperation between the coastal states. Draft proposals floated in April and May have not advanced to signing amid U.S. pressure on Oman and unresolved issues in broader Iran-U.S. talks. With only days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled high-level announcements, the window for a verifiable pact has effectively closed, though a last-minute diplomatic concession could theoretically shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
$16,340 Vol.
$16,340 Vol.
15 giu 2026
$16,340 Vol.
$16,340 Vol.
15 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against an Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management by June 15 due to the absence of any finalized protocol or joint statement despite months of bilateral discussions on monitoring, toll systems, and coordinated navigation. Recent security incidents in early June, including reported Iranian missile and drone activity alongside U.S. maritime interdictions, have sustained tensions that complicate formal cooperation between the coastal states. Draft proposals floated in April and May have not advanced to signing amid U.S. pressure on Oman and unresolved issues in broader Iran-U.S. talks. With only days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled high-level announcements, the window for a verifiable pact has effectively closed, though a last-minute diplomatic concession could theoretically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$16,340Data di fine
15 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against an Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management by June 15 due to the absence of any finalized protocol or joint statement despite months of bilateral discussions on monitoring, toll systems, and coordinated navigation. Recent security incidents in early June, including reported Iranian missile and drone activity alongside U.S. maritime interdictions, have sustained tensions that complicate formal cooperation between the coastal states. Draft proposals floated in April and May have not advanced to signing amid U.S. pressure on Oman and unresolved issues in broader Iran-U.S. talks. With only days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled high-level announcements, the window for a verifiable pact has effectively closed, though a last-minute diplomatic concession could theoretically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$16,340Data di fine
15 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against an Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management by June 15 due to the absence of any finalized protocol or joint statement despite months of bilateral discussions on monitoring, toll systems, and coordinated navigation. Recent security incidents in early June, including reported Iranian missile and drone activity alongside U.S. maritime interdictions, have sustained tensions that complicate formal cooperation between the coastal states. Draft proposals floated in April and May have not advanced to signing amid U.S. pressure on Oman and unresolved issues in broader Iran-U.S. talks. With only days remaining before the deadline and no scheduled high-level announcements, the window for a verifiable pact has effectively closed, though a last-minute diplomatic concession could theoretically shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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