Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?
$3,482,357 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre 2026
$517,925 Vol.
9%
$3,482,357 Vol.
31 dicembre 2026
$517,925 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Mar 6 2026
Market falls sharply as no concrete diplomatic announcements materialize
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
Disappointment over lack of formal steps caused a swift decline.
Mar 4 2026
Market briefly rallies on speculation of incremental diplomatic progress between Indonesia and Israel
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%13%
Speculation about phased cooperation raised hopes temporarily.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian government clarifies it will not coordinate with Israeli forces in Gaza peacekeeping, emphasizing no recognition of Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
This statement reinforced Indonesia’s stance against practical recognition of Israel, contributing to.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian troops prepare for Gaza peacekeeping mission but avoid Israeli-controlled areas to prevent recognition of Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
This cautious approach highlighted Indonesia’s balancing act, reducing normalization prospects.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward Israel
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%8%
Indonesia’s firm stance on Palestine despite Israel’s regional engagement signaled little near-term change.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Indonesia’s continued support for Palestine despite Israel’s inclusion in the peace board signaled no immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
Nov 11 2025
Ongoing reports of quiet trade and cooperation persist but no formal diplomatic ties established
Despite economic and security contacts, the lack of official diplomatic announcements kept market confidence low.
Oct 22 2025
Indonesian hosting of the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships excludes Israeli athletes, reflecting political sensitivities
This event underscored Indonesia’s reluctance to cross certain diplomatic lines, maintaining status quo.
Oct 13 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo attends a world leaders’ summit on ending Gaza war, signaling a softer tone but no formal diplomatic steps
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Prabowo’s engagement raised hopes for future normalization but no concrete announcements were made.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge that President Subianto plans an official visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and stalled progress, causing a slight.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge of Prabowo’s planned visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and domestic resistance, causing a
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto states willingness to normalize relations with Israel only if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Prabowo’s conditional stance signaled openness but maintained a significant diplomatic hurdle, tempering market optimism.
May 28 2025
Indonesia’s OECD accession process requires diplomatic relations with Israel, but Indonesia maintains distance
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
The OECD leverage creates diplomatic pressure but Indonesia’s reluctance to normalize without Palestinian recognition limits progress.
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto publicly states willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%20%
This announcement raised initial hopes for normalization but underscored the Palestinian recognition condition, tempering market optimism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Mar 6 2026
Market falls sharply as no concrete diplomatic announcements materialize
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
Disappointment over lack of formal steps caused a swift decline.
Mar 4 2026
Market briefly rallies on speculation of incremental diplomatic progress between Indonesia and Israel
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%13%
Speculation about phased cooperation raised hopes temporarily.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian government clarifies it will not coordinate with Israeli forces in Gaza peacekeeping, emphasizing no recognition of Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
This statement reinforced Indonesia’s stance against practical recognition of Israel, contributing to.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian troops prepare for Gaza peacekeeping mission but avoid Israeli-controlled areas to prevent recognition of Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
This cautious approach highlighted Indonesia’s balancing act, reducing normalization prospects.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward Israel
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%8%
Indonesia’s firm stance on Palestine despite Israel’s regional engagement signaled little near-term change.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Indonesia’s continued support for Palestine despite Israel’s inclusion in the peace board signaled no immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
Nov 11 2025
Ongoing reports of quiet trade and cooperation persist but no formal diplomatic ties established
Despite economic and security contacts, the lack of official diplomatic announcements kept market confidence low.
Oct 22 2025
Indonesian hosting of the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships excludes Israeli athletes, reflecting political sensitivities
This event underscored Indonesia’s reluctance to cross certain diplomatic lines, maintaining status quo.
Oct 13 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo attends a world leaders’ summit on ending Gaza war, signaling a softer tone but no formal diplomatic steps
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Prabowo’s engagement raised hopes for future normalization but no concrete announcements were made.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge that President Subianto plans an official visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and stalled progress, causing a slight.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge of Prabowo’s planned visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and domestic resistance, causing a
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto states willingness to normalize relations with Israel only if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Prabowo’s conditional stance signaled openness but maintained a significant diplomatic hurdle, tempering market optimism.
May 28 2025
Indonesia’s OECD accession process requires diplomatic relations with Israel, but Indonesia maintains distance
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
The OECD leverage creates diplomatic pressure but Indonesia’s reluctance to normalize without Palestinian recognition limits progress.
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto publicly states willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%20%
This announcement raised initial hopes for normalization but underscored the Palestinian recognition condition, tempering market optimism.
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Domande frequenti
"Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "31 dicembre 2026" a 9%, seguito da "30 giugno 2026" a 0%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 9¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 9% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?" ha generato $3.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 11, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?" è "31 dicembre 2026" a solo 9%, con "30 giugno 2026" vicino a 0%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
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Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 9¢ per "31 dicembre 2026" nel mercato "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 9% che "31 dicembre 2026" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 9¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 91¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al Dec 30, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?" ha una comunità attiva di 22 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Israele e Indonesia normalizzano le relazioni con...?". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti