Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani and Omani mediators, which resumed in April amid a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz tensions, have driven trader consensus to a 55% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. A recent US 14-point memorandum proposing a 12- to 20-year halt on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief prompted Iran's formal review and counterproposal last week, with sources indicating narrowing gaps ahead of Vienna technical talks. President Trump's public optimism contrasts with Tehran's rejection of "maximalist" demands, leaving enrichment caps and blockade removal as key hurdles; historical JCPOA withdrawal patterns underscore uncertainty, though diplomatic momentum favors a framework agreement over full impasse.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,319,259 Vol.
$1,319,259 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$1,319,259 Vol.
$1,319,259 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani and Omani mediators, which resumed in April amid a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz tensions, have driven trader consensus to a 55% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. A recent US 14-point memorandum proposing a 12- to 20-year halt on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief prompted Iran's formal review and counterproposal last week, with sources indicating narrowing gaps ahead of Vienna technical talks. President Trump's public optimism contrasts with Tehran's rejection of "maximalist" demands, leaving enrichment caps and blockade removal as key hurdles; historical JCPOA withdrawal patterns underscore uncertainty, though diplomatic momentum favors a framework agreement over full impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$1,319,259Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani and Omani mediators, which resumed in April amid a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz tensions, have driven trader consensus to a 55% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. A recent US 14-point memorandum proposing a 12- to 20-year halt on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief prompted Iran's formal review and counterproposal last week, with sources indicating narrowing gaps ahead of Vienna technical talks. President Trump's public optimism contrasts with Tehran's rejection of "maximalist" demands, leaving enrichment caps and blockade removal as key hurdles; historical JCPOA withdrawal patterns underscore uncertainty, though diplomatic momentum favors a framework agreement over full impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,319,259Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani and Omani mediators, which resumed in April amid a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz tensions, have driven trader consensus to a 55% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. A recent US 14-point memorandum proposing a 12- to 20-year halt on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief prompted Iran's formal review and counterproposal last week, with sources indicating narrowing gaps ahead of Vienna technical talks. President Trump's public optimism contrasts with Tehran's rejection of "maximalist" demands, leaving enrichment caps and blockade removal as key hurdles; historical JCPOA withdrawal patterns underscore uncertainty, though diplomatic momentum favors a framework agreement over full impasse.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti