Netanyahu remains committed to leading Likud into the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, with recent internal statements confirming he intends to stay in politics and head the opposition if his bloc falls short of a majority. Recent polling averages show his coalition projected at 51-55 seats against a fragmented opposition bloc near or slightly above that threshold, keeping the race competitive without clear signs of momentum toward his withdrawal. Key developments include the September 8 candidate list deadline, ongoing right-wing party mergers to clear the electoral threshold, and continued focus on judicial reform and security issues. No major scandals, health updates, or coalition defections have emerged in the past month to shift expectations. Traders monitoring the market will watch for any late-campaign shifts in Likud internal dynamics or public polling trends through early October that could alter the implied probability of an exit before election day.