Netanyahu publicly confirmed his candidacy for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election in late July, ending speculation about withdrawal despite recent polls showing his Likud-led coalition at 48 seats or fewer—well short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Opposition figures such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party lead or tie in bloc projections and head-to-head prime ministerial preferences, fueled by voter fatigue over prolonged conflicts, coalition strains with ultra-Orthodox and far-right partners, and policy disputes including Israel’s August rejection of a U.S.-backed Gaza plan requiring Hamas disarmament. Traders assess low implied probability of dropout given Netanyahu’s history of forming governments under pressure and the compressed timeline to candidate list deadlines and primaries.