Post-election fragmentation after Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset vote has left neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc (53 seats) nor the main opposition (48 seats) near the 61-seat threshold for a stable majority, with Arab parties holding 19 seats in a decisive but contested position. President Herzog assigned Gadi Eisenkot the initial mandate to form a government on November 8, granting him 28 days plus a possible 14-day extension amid ongoing coalition talks marked by mutual vetoes, resistance to Arab-party support, and internal bloc divisions. These dynamics, combined with the short window to December 31 and historical precedents of extended negotiations after inconclusive results, underpin the trader consensus favoring no successful confidence vote and government formation by year-end. Scheduled Knesset seating on November 10 offers limited procedural acceleration.