Nawaf Salam has served as Lebanon’s prime minister since February 2025, when parliament nominated him with 84 votes and President Joseph Aoun confirmed the 24-member cabinet. As of mid-August 2026, Salam remains fully engaged in the role, meeting U.S. officials on southern Lebanon negotiations, urging a clear Israeli withdrawal timetable, and conducting public visits to affirm state authority amid ongoing border issues and Hezbollah-related tensions. No parliamentary no-confidence motions, resignation announcements, or major coalition fractures have surfaced in recent months. Traders therefore assign an 89.5% implied probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of procedural triggers or political shifts that would end his tenure before the end of 2026.