Skip to main content
icon for Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
Geopolitica·Israele

Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?

icon for Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
Geopolitica·Israele

Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?

50% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
50% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's government faces intense pressure from Hezbollah, which has threatened stability after his March 2026 ban on the group's military activities declared illegal, fueling April protests in Beirut demanding his resignation over alleged concessions in Israel ceasefire talks. Recent Beirut shootings prompted Salam to vow full state authority and arrests, while he postponed a U.S. trip amid security backlash and pursues €500 million in aid for economic reforms. With no-confidence risks and coalition fractures balanced against international support for disarmament and negotiations, traders see a coin-flip chance of his ouster before year-end, hinging on escalation in Hezbollah defiance or successful diplomacy.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$119
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's government faces intense pressure from Hezbollah, which has threatened stability after his March 2026 ban on the group's military activities declared illegal, fueling April protests in Beirut demanding his resignation over alleged concessions in Israel ceasefire talks. Recent Beirut shootings prompted Salam to vow full state authority and arrests, while he postponed a U.S. trip amid security backlash and pursues €500 million in aid for economic reforms. With no-confidence risks and coalition fractures balanced against international support for disarmament and negotiations, traders see a coin-flip chance of his ouster before year-end, hinging on escalation in Hezbollah defiance or successful diplomacy.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$119
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 50% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 50¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 50% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Apr 20, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?" è 50% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 50% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.