Ongoing US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, which began in April 2026, center on ceasefire extensions, border security arrangements, and Hezbollah disarmament rather than full diplomatic normalization. Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, have explicitly prioritized an end to hostilities and Israeli withdrawal over people-to-people ties or embassy exchanges, citing constitutional barriers and internal divisions. Hezbollah continues to reject any normalization and has violated recent truces with rocket and drone activity, while Israel conditions deeper agreements on verifiable disarmament and Lebanese state control in the south. A 45-day ceasefire extension agreed in mid-May 2026 signals incremental diplomatic momentum but underscores the absence of consensus on the sequence or scope of any deal. These factors align with trader views that structural and political obstacles make formal relations by December 2026 unlikely.