Ongoing hostilities and Hezbollah's explicit rejection of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework have kept full diplomatic normalization off the table. The agreement focused on ceasefire implementation, Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, and Hezbollah disarmament under international oversight, yet the group declared the deal null and continued threats of disruption. Lebanese officials, including the prime minister, have repeatedly stated the country remains far from normalization or economic ties absent a broader regional framework. Internal political divisions, Hezbollah's entrenched military role, and Lebanon's constitutional constraints further limit prospects for a peace treaty or diplomatic relations by the end of 2026. These factors sustain trader consensus against the outcome.