Recent diplomatic frictions, including a Canadian parliamentary petition with over 170,000 signatures calling for the expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over policy disputes and perceived interference, have not prompted formal action by Ottawa, consistent with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s public stance against such a step. Broader bilateral ties with major partners remain intact despite occasional tensions, and historical precedents show countries rarely expel sitting U.S. ambassadors absent acute crises. With roughly four months until the December 31 resolution date, trader consensus reflected in the 78.5% “No” probability aligns with the low likelihood of sudden reciprocal expulsions given ongoing diplomatic channels and the absence of confirmed government decisions to sever ambassadorial relations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
13% probabilità
$27,622 Vol.
$27,622 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
13% probabilità
$27,622 Vol.
$27,622 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic frictions, including a Canadian parliamentary petition with over 170,000 signatures calling for the expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over policy disputes and perceived interference, have not prompted formal action by Ottawa, consistent with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s public stance against such a step. Broader bilateral ties with major partners remain intact despite occasional tensions, and historical precedents show countries rarely expel sitting U.S. ambassadors absent acute crises. With roughly four months until the December 31 resolution date, trader consensus reflected in the 78.5% “No” probability aligns with the low likelihood of sudden reciprocal expulsions given ongoing diplomatic channels and the absence of confirmed government decisions to sever ambassadorial relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$27,622Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic frictions, including a Canadian parliamentary petition with over 170,000 signatures calling for the expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over policy disputes and perceived interference, have not prompted formal action by Ottawa, consistent with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s public stance against such a step. Broader bilateral ties with major partners remain intact despite occasional tensions, and historical precedents show countries rarely expel sitting U.S. ambassadors absent acute crises. With roughly four months until the December 31 resolution date, trader consensus reflected in the 78.5% “No” probability aligns with the low likelihood of sudden reciprocal expulsions given ongoing diplomatic channels and the absence of confirmed government decisions to sever ambassadorial relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,622Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic frictions, including a Canadian parliamentary petition with over 170,000 signatures calling for the expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over policy disputes and perceived interference, have not prompted formal action by Ottawa, consistent with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s public stance against such a step. Broader bilateral ties with major partners remain intact despite occasional tensions, and historical precedents show countries rarely expel sitting U.S. ambassadors absent acute crises. With roughly four months until the December 31 resolution date, trader consensus reflected in the 78.5% “No” probability aligns with the low likelihood of sudden reciprocal expulsions given ongoing diplomatic channels and the absence of confirmed government decisions to sever ambassadorial relations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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