Persistent deadlock in indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, drives trader consensus to a 75.5% implied probability against a nuclear deal by June 30, as key disputes over uranium enrichment moratorium length—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—remain unresolved amid fragile ceasefire tensions. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal around May 11 as unacceptable, calling the ceasefire "on life support," while Vice President JD Vance noted progress on May 13 but stressed unmet red lines preventing Iranian nuclear weapon development. Sticking points including Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and highly enriched uranium removal, coupled with Iranian leadership divisions and historical mistrust, heighten barriers to a publicly announced agreement within six weeks, though diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo nucleare USA-Iran entro il 30 giugno?
Accordo nucleare USA-Iran entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$1,845,624 Vol.
$1,845,624 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,845,624 Vol.
$1,845,624 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Persistent deadlock in indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, drives trader consensus to a 75.5% implied probability against a nuclear deal by June 30, as key disputes over uranium enrichment moratorium length—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—remain unresolved amid fragile ceasefire tensions. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal around May 11 as unacceptable, calling the ceasefire "on life support," while Vice President JD Vance noted progress on May 13 but stressed unmet red lines preventing Iranian nuclear weapon development. Sticking points including Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and highly enriched uranium removal, coupled with Iranian leadership divisions and historical mistrust, heighten barriers to a publicly announced agreement within six weeks, though diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,845,624Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Persistent deadlock in indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, drives trader consensus to a 75.5% implied probability against a nuclear deal by June 30, as key disputes over uranium enrichment moratorium length—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—remain unresolved amid fragile ceasefire tensions. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal around May 11 as unacceptable, calling the ceasefire "on life support," while Vice President JD Vance noted progress on May 13 but stressed unmet red lines preventing Iranian nuclear weapon development. Sticking points including Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and highly enriched uranium removal, coupled with Iranian leadership divisions and historical mistrust, heighten barriers to a publicly announced agreement within six weeks, though diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,845,628Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent deadlock in indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, drives trader consensus to a 75.5% implied probability against a nuclear deal by June 30, as key disputes over uranium enrichment moratorium length—US demanding 20 years versus Iran's five-year proposal—remain unresolved amid fragile ceasefire tensions. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal around May 11 as unacceptable, calling the ceasefire "on life support," while Vice President JD Vance noted progress on May 13 but stressed unmet red lines preventing Iranian nuclear weapon development. Sticking points including Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and highly enriched uranium removal, coupled with Iranian leadership divisions and historical mistrust, heighten barriers to a publicly announced agreement within six weeks, though diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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