European leaders have consistently prioritized diplomatic engagement and limited defensive measures since the US-Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, including joint statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks while explicitly ruling out offensive participation and urging renewed negotiations. Recent developments, such as the April ceasefire and ongoing talks on nuclear and ballistic issues alongside Strait of Hormuz security, have reinforced this approach amid economic pressures from disrupted shipping and domestic constraints on deeper military involvement. Trader consensus reflects these patterns, with high probability assigned to no strikes by June 30. Shifts could still occur if Iran targets European naval assets or shipping lanes directly, prompting proportionate responses under existing E3 commitments.