Trader consensus heavily favors 0-10 daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end of May at 68.5%, reflecting persistent disruptions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, when Iranian forces effectively closed the chokepoint to foreign commercial shipping. Recent naval skirmishes between US Navy vessels and Iranian forces, including intercepted attacks on American destroyers as late as May 7, have throttled traffic to single digits—such as four vessels on May 5 and nine on May 3—stranding over 1,500 ships and 22,000 mariners. No de-escalation signals or ceasefire breakthroughs have emerged in the past week, sustaining low probabilities for higher transit bins amid threats of further military action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
0-10 69%
10-20 14%
20-40 9%
60+ 6.2%
$98,350 Vol.
$98,350 Vol.
31 mag 2026
0-10
69%
10-20
14%
20-40
9%
40-60
3%
60+
6%
0-10 69%
10-20 14%
20-40 9%
60+ 6.2%
$98,350 Vol.
$98,350 Vol.
31 mag 2026
0-10
$34,868 Vol.
69%
10-20
$20,606 Vol.
14%
20-40
$10,618 Vol.
9%
40-60
$10,276 Vol.
3%
60+
$21,983 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus heavily favors 0-10 daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end of May at 68.5%, reflecting persistent disruptions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, when Iranian forces effectively closed the chokepoint to foreign commercial shipping. Recent naval skirmishes between US Navy vessels and Iranian forces, including intercepted attacks on American destroyers as late as May 7, have throttled traffic to single digits—such as four vessels on May 5 and nine on May 3—stranding over 1,500 ships and 22,000 mariners. No de-escalation signals or ceasefire breakthroughs have emerged in the past week, sustaining low probabilities for higher transit bins amid threats of further military action.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$98,350Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus heavily favors 0-10 daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end of May at 68.5%, reflecting persistent disruptions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, when Iranian forces effectively closed the chokepoint to foreign commercial shipping. Recent naval skirmishes between US Navy vessels and Iranian forces, including intercepted attacks on American destroyers as late as May 7, have throttled traffic to single digits—such as four vessels on May 5 and nine on May 3—stranding over 1,500 ships and 22,000 mariners. No de-escalation signals or ceasefire breakthroughs have emerged in the past week, sustaining low probabilities for higher transit bins amid threats of further military action.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$98,350Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 0-10 daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end of May at 68.5%, reflecting persistent disruptions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, when Iranian forces effectively closed the chokepoint to foreign commercial shipping. Recent naval skirmishes between US Navy vessels and Iranian forces, including intercepted attacks on American destroyers as late as May 7, have throttled traffic to single digits—such as four vessels on May 5 and nine on May 3—stranding over 1,500 ships and 22,000 mariners. No de-escalation signals or ceasefire breakthroughs have emerged in the past week, sustaining low probabilities for higher transit bins amid threats of further military action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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