**The KRG’s focus remains on internal governance and federal coordination rather than a unilateral independence declaration.** Negotiations between the KDP and PUK continue over forming the tenth cabinet and reactivating parliament following the 2024 elections, while recent unification of Peshmerga forces under a single ministry in September 2026 signals efforts to strengthen institutional stability within Iraq’s federal framework. KRG leaders have marked the ninth anniversary of the 2017 referendum as a historical milestone without advancing new sovereignty steps, and officials have joined national observances such as Iraq’s Sovereignty Days after the US-led coalition withdrawal. Ongoing budget and revenue talks with Baghdad, alongside security coordination, further align regional priorities with constitutional relations rather than secession. With only weeks left before the December 31 deadline and no official announcements or legislative moves toward independence, traders assign overwhelming probability to “No.”