The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects entrenched internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, prolonged delays in forming a new regional cabinet after the 2024 parliamentary elections, and continued fiscal reliance on revenue-sharing and oil agreements with Baghdad renewed into 2026. KRG leaders have repeatedly prioritized neutrality amid the ongoing US-Iran regional conflict, with Prime Minister Masrour Barzani stating in August 2026 that the region seeks to avoid involvement and supports Baghdad's authority over weapons. Iraq's Federal Supreme Court has long deemed secession unconstitutional, while Turkey, Iran, and other neighbors maintain firm opposition. No parliamentary votes, executive announcements, or diplomatic preparations for unilateral independence have emerged in 2025-2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl KRG dichiara l'indipendenza dall'Iraq entro il 31 dicembre?
Il KRG dichiara l'indipendenza dall'Iraq entro il 31 dicembre?
Sì
6% probabilità
$272,582 Vol.
$272,582 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
6% probabilità
$272,582 Vol.
$272,582 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects entrenched internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, prolonged delays in forming a new regional cabinet after the 2024 parliamentary elections, and continued fiscal reliance on revenue-sharing and oil agreements with Baghdad renewed into 2026. KRG leaders have repeatedly prioritized neutrality amid the ongoing US-Iran regional conflict, with Prime Minister Masrour Barzani stating in August 2026 that the region seeks to avoid involvement and supports Baghdad's authority over weapons. Iraq's Federal Supreme Court has long deemed secession unconstitutional, while Turkey, Iran, and other neighbors maintain firm opposition. No parliamentary votes, executive announcements, or diplomatic preparations for unilateral independence have emerged in 2025-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$272,582Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects entrenched internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, prolonged delays in forming a new regional cabinet after the 2024 parliamentary elections, and continued fiscal reliance on revenue-sharing and oil agreements with Baghdad renewed into 2026. KRG leaders have repeatedly prioritized neutrality amid the ongoing US-Iran regional conflict, with Prime Minister Masrour Barzani stating in August 2026 that the region seeks to avoid involvement and supports Baghdad's authority over weapons. Iraq's Federal Supreme Court has long deemed secession unconstitutional, while Turkey, Iran, and other neighbors maintain firm opposition. No parliamentary votes, executive announcements, or diplomatic preparations for unilateral independence have emerged in 2025-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$272,582Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects entrenched internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, prolonged delays in forming a new regional cabinet after the 2024 parliamentary elections, and continued fiscal reliance on revenue-sharing and oil agreements with Baghdad renewed into 2026. KRG leaders have repeatedly prioritized neutrality amid the ongoing US-Iran regional conflict, with Prime Minister Masrour Barzani stating in August 2026 that the region seeks to avoid involvement and supports Baghdad's authority over weapons. Iraq's Federal Supreme Court has long deemed secession unconstitutional, while Turkey, Iran, and other neighbors maintain firm opposition. No parliamentary votes, executive announcements, or diplomatic preparations for unilateral independence have emerged in 2025-2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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