Military strikes by the United States and Israel in 2025 and 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling centrifuges and related infrastructure. US intelligence assessments place the time required for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon, if it chose to pursue one, at roughly one year or longer from mid-2026, citing wrecked plants and limited remaining capacity. The IAEA has had no inspection access since mid-2025, leaving the status of surviving 60% enriched uranium stockpiles unverified, while reconstruction at some sites shows activity but no confirmed resumption of large-scale enrichment. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the absence of any detected decision by Iranian leadership to weaponize further support trader consensus against a completed device or test before 2027. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include accelerated rebuilding of underground sites or rapid diversion of hidden material amid stalled talks.