Houthi rebels launched drones toward Israel's Eilat on May 12—their first attack since early April—intercepted by Israeli defenses without impact, resuming hostilities amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and Houthi alignment with Tehran against Red Sea shipping and Israeli targets. No Israeli airstrikes, drone, or missile strikes on Yemeni soil have occurred in the past 30 days, despite prior retaliations like 2025 port bombings, leading traders to price low probabilities at 10% for action by May 31 and 22% by June 30, reflecting restraint amid broader proxy escalations. Watch upcoming CENTCOM briefings and diplomatic signals for potential shifts, as historical patterns show responses to direct threats but uncertainty persists in de-escalation efforts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAzione militare israeliana contro lo Yemen da parte di...?
Azione militare israeliana contro lo Yemen da parte di...?
$1,727,913 Vol.
31 mag 2026
31 maggio
9%
30 giugno
22%
$1,727,913 Vol.
31 maggio
$112,807 Vol.
9%
30 giugno
$462,096 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Houthi rebels launched drones toward Israel's Eilat on May 12—their first attack since early April—intercepted by Israeli defenses without impact, resuming hostilities amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and Houthi alignment with Tehran against Red Sea shipping and Israeli targets. No Israeli airstrikes, drone, or missile strikes on Yemeni soil have occurred in the past 30 days, despite prior retaliations like 2025 port bombings, leading traders to price low probabilities at 10% for action by May 31 and 22% by June 30, reflecting restraint amid broader proxy escalations. Watch upcoming CENTCOM briefings and diplomatic signals for potential shifts, as historical patterns show responses to direct threats but uncertainty persists in de-escalation efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 18, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$1,727,913Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 18, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Houthi rebels launched drones toward Israel's Eilat on May 12—their first attack since early April—intercepted by Israeli defenses without impact, resuming hostilities amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and Houthi alignment with Tehran against Red Sea shipping and Israeli targets. No Israeli airstrikes, drone, or missile strikes on Yemeni soil have occurred in the past 30 days, despite prior retaliations like 2025 port bombings, leading traders to price low probabilities at 10% for action by May 31 and 22% by June 30, reflecting restraint amid broader proxy escalations. Watch upcoming CENTCOM briefings and diplomatic signals for potential shifts, as historical patterns show responses to direct threats but uncertainty persists in de-escalation efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,727,913Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 18, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Houthi rebels launched drones toward Israel's Eilat on May 12—their first attack since early April—intercepted by Israeli defenses without impact, resuming hostilities amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and Houthi alignment with Tehran against Red Sea shipping and Israeli targets. No Israeli airstrikes, drone, or missile strikes on Yemeni soil have occurred in the past 30 days, despite prior retaliations like 2025 port bombings, leading traders to price low probabilities at 10% for action by May 31 and 22% by June 30, reflecting restraint amid broader proxy escalations. Watch upcoming CENTCOM briefings and diplomatic signals for potential shifts, as historical patterns show responses to direct threats but uncertainty persists in de-escalation efforts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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