The fragile ceasefire following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues to shape trader expectations that no foreign officials or military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by June 30. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes during Operation Epic Fury targeted missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but avoided sustained ground operations amid a subsequent U.S.-brokered truce that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild capabilities with Russian and Chinese assistance, alongside persistent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, underscore the risks of escalation that could prompt renewed strikes or limited incursions. Diplomatic channels, including reported U.S. pressure on nuclear terms, remain the primary alternative to direct entry, though any shift in the fragile truce or high-level visits could alter the low implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$388,917 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Qualche membro della Camera degli Stati Uniti
5%
Qualsiasi senatore degli Stati Uniti
3%
Jared Kushner
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Pete Hegseth
2%
JD Vance
2%
Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Donald Trump
1%
$388,917 Vol.
Qualche membro della Camera degli Stati Uniti
$86,947 Vol.
5%
Qualsiasi senatore degli Stati Uniti
$29,991 Vol.
3%
Jared Kushner
$15,604 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$21,470 Vol.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$93,012 Vol.
2%
JD Vance
$30,933 Vol.
2%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$42,286 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$68,675 Vol.
1%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile ceasefire following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues to shape trader expectations that no foreign officials or military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by June 30. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes during Operation Epic Fury targeted missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but avoided sustained ground operations amid a subsequent U.S.-brokered truce that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild capabilities with Russian and Chinese assistance, alongside persistent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, underscore the risks of escalation that could prompt renewed strikes or limited incursions. Diplomatic channels, including reported U.S. pressure on nuclear terms, remain the primary alternative to direct entry, though any shift in the fragile truce or high-level visits could alter the low implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$388,917Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile ceasefire following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues to shape trader expectations that no foreign officials or military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by June 30. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes during Operation Epic Fury targeted missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but avoided sustained ground operations amid a subsequent U.S.-brokered truce that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild capabilities with Russian and Chinese assistance, alongside persistent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, underscore the risks of escalation that could prompt renewed strikes or limited incursions. Diplomatic channels, including reported U.S. pressure on nuclear terms, remain the primary alternative to direct entry, though any shift in the fragile truce or high-level visits could alter the low implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$388,917Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile ceasefire following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues to shape trader expectations that no foreign officials or military personnel will physically enter Iranian territory by June 30. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes during Operation Epic Fury targeted missile sites, air defenses, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but avoided sustained ground operations amid a subsequent U.S.-brokered truce that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild capabilities with Russian and Chinese assistance, alongside persistent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, underscore the risks of escalation that could prompt renewed strikes or limited incursions. Diplomatic channels, including reported U.S. pressure on nuclear terms, remain the primary alternative to direct entry, though any shift in the fragile truce or high-level visits could alter the low implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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