Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (38%) to 0-10 average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-June, reflecting the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict's impact on the critical oil chokepoint. Pre-war volumes of 125-160 vessels daily collapsed after February 28 hostilities, with traffic stuck at a 5-10 vessel trickle amid elevated attack risks, insurance surcharges, and rerouting. Recent developments include the June 7 downgrade of threat levels to "severe," modest upticks noted by the U.S. Energy Secretary, and comments from tanker executives on potential quick rebounds only after a credible security deal. Persistent uncertainty over military activity and stalled negotiations keeps higher bins like 20-40 (26.5%) secondary in the market's skin-in-the-game assessment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
0-10 38%
20-40 26%
40-60 16.2%
10-20 13%
$59,728 Vol.
$59,728 Vol.
30 giu 2026
0-10
38%
10-20
13%
20-40
26%
40-60
16%
60+
12%
0-10 38%
20-40 26%
40-60 16.2%
10-20 13%
$59,728 Vol.
$59,728 Vol.
30 giu 2026
0-10
$24,471 Vol.
38%
10-20
$6,270 Vol.
13%
20-40
$6,098 Vol.
26%
40-60
$6,611 Vol.
16%
60+
$16,341 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (38%) to 0-10 average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-June, reflecting the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict's impact on the critical oil chokepoint. Pre-war volumes of 125-160 vessels daily collapsed after February 28 hostilities, with traffic stuck at a 5-10 vessel trickle amid elevated attack risks, insurance surcharges, and rerouting. Recent developments include the June 7 downgrade of threat levels to "severe," modest upticks noted by the U.S. Energy Secretary, and comments from tanker executives on potential quick rebounds only after a credible security deal. Persistent uncertainty over military activity and stalled negotiations keeps higher bins like 20-40 (26.5%) secondary in the market's skin-in-the-game assessment.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$59,728Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (38%) to 0-10 average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-June, reflecting the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict's impact on the critical oil chokepoint. Pre-war volumes of 125-160 vessels daily collapsed after February 28 hostilities, with traffic stuck at a 5-10 vessel trickle amid elevated attack risks, insurance surcharges, and rerouting. Recent developments include the June 7 downgrade of threat levels to "severe," modest upticks noted by the U.S. Energy Secretary, and comments from tanker executives on potential quick rebounds only after a credible security deal. Persistent uncertainty over military activity and stalled negotiations keeps higher bins like 20-40 (26.5%) secondary in the market's skin-in-the-game assessment.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$59,728Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (38%) to 0-10 average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-June, reflecting the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict's impact on the critical oil chokepoint. Pre-war volumes of 125-160 vessels daily collapsed after February 28 hostilities, with traffic stuck at a 5-10 vessel trickle amid elevated attack risks, insurance surcharges, and rerouting. Recent developments include the June 7 downgrade of threat levels to "severe," modest upticks noted by the U.S. Energy Secretary, and comments from tanker executives on potential quick rebounds only after a credible security deal. Persistent uncertainty over military activity and stalled negotiations keeps higher bins like 20-40 (26.5%) secondary in the market's skin-in-the-game assessment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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