**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and related military actions have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted since late February 2026, driving trader expectations toward low weekly transit volumes for the week of June 15.** Pre-conflict norms averaged roughly 60–70 vessels daily, but data through early June show daily crossings often below 10 and sometimes near zero, with many vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated war-risk insurance and security alerts. Recent incidents, including a June 11 tanker attack that killed three seafarers and Iran’s renewed closure declarations in response to US strikes, have sustained deterrence. A modest June 7 downgrade of threat assessments from critical to severe permitted limited southern-route transits near Oman, yet overall flows remain far below historical levels. Market pricing therefore concentrates on the 25–49 bracket as the most probable range for the coming week, reflecting continued caution by shipowners rather than any rapid restoration of normal operations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?
25-49 48%
75-99 27%
<25 26%
50-74 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 giu 2026
<25
26%
25-49
48%
50-74
20%
75-99
27%
100+
7%
25-49 48%
75-99 27%
<25 26%
50-74 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 giu 2026
<25
$712 Vol.
26%
25-49
$70 Vol.
48%
50-74
$69 Vol.
20%
75-99
$68 Vol.
27%
100+
$226 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and related military actions have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted since late February 2026, driving trader expectations toward low weekly transit volumes for the week of June 15.** Pre-conflict norms averaged roughly 60–70 vessels daily, but data through early June show daily crossings often below 10 and sometimes near zero, with many vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated war-risk insurance and security alerts. Recent incidents, including a June 11 tanker attack that killed three seafarers and Iran’s renewed closure declarations in response to US strikes, have sustained deterrence. A modest June 7 downgrade of threat assessments from critical to severe permitted limited southern-route transits near Oman, yet overall flows remain far below historical levels. Market pricing therefore concentrates on the 25–49 bracket as the most probable range for the coming week, reflecting continued caution by shipowners rather than any rapid restoration of normal operations.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,146Data di fine
21 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and related military actions have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted since late February 2026, driving trader expectations toward low weekly transit volumes for the week of June 15.** Pre-conflict norms averaged roughly 60–70 vessels daily, but data through early June show daily crossings often below 10 and sometimes near zero, with many vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated war-risk insurance and security alerts. Recent incidents, including a June 11 tanker attack that killed three seafarers and Iran’s renewed closure declarations in response to US strikes, have sustained deterrence. A modest June 7 downgrade of threat assessments from critical to severe permitted limited southern-route transits near Oman, yet overall flows remain far below historical levels. Market pricing therefore concentrates on the 25–49 bracket as the most probable range for the coming week, reflecting continued caution by shipowners rather than any rapid restoration of normal operations.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,146Data di fine
21 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and related military actions have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted since late February 2026, driving trader expectations toward low weekly transit volumes for the week of June 15.** Pre-conflict norms averaged roughly 60–70 vessels daily, but data through early June show daily crossings often below 10 and sometimes near zero, with many vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated war-risk insurance and security alerts. Recent incidents, including a June 11 tanker attack that killed three seafarers and Iran’s renewed closure declarations in response to US strikes, have sustained deterrence. A modest June 7 downgrade of threat assessments from critical to severe permitted limited southern-route transits near Oman, yet overall flows remain far below historical levels. Market pricing therefore concentrates on the 25–49 bracket as the most probable range for the coming week, reflecting continued caution by shipowners rather than any rapid restoration of normal operations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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