Recent US-Iran diplomatic momentum, including reported progress toward an initial memorandum of understanding that would launch a 60-day period for nuclear-specific talks, underpins the 67.5% implied probability traders assign to a verifiable agreement by July 31. Statements from President Trump indicating a deal is near completion, combined with Iranian officials reviewing proposals on enriched uranium removal, enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, have sustained positive sentiment. Ongoing mediation and technical discussions on verification and stockpile destruction further support consensus that core issues can be bridged before the deadline, though unresolved details on enrichment duration and enforcement could still shift timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
$337,888 Vol.
$337,888 Vol.
31 lug 2026
$337,888 Vol.
$337,888 Vol.
31 lug 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent US-Iran diplomatic momentum, including reported progress toward an initial memorandum of understanding that would launch a 60-day period for nuclear-specific talks, underpins the 67.5% implied probability traders assign to a verifiable agreement by July 31. Statements from President Trump indicating a deal is near completion, combined with Iranian officials reviewing proposals on enriched uranium removal, enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, have sustained positive sentiment. Ongoing mediation and technical discussions on verification and stockpile destruction further support consensus that core issues can be bridged before the deadline, though unresolved details on enrichment duration and enforcement could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$337,888Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent US-Iran diplomatic momentum, including reported progress toward an initial memorandum of understanding that would launch a 60-day period for nuclear-specific talks, underpins the 67.5% implied probability traders assign to a verifiable agreement by July 31. Statements from President Trump indicating a deal is near completion, combined with Iranian officials reviewing proposals on enriched uranium removal, enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, have sustained positive sentiment. Ongoing mediation and technical discussions on verification and stockpile destruction further support consensus that core issues can be bridged before the deadline, though unresolved details on enrichment duration and enforcement could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$338,616Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran diplomatic momentum, including reported progress toward an initial memorandum of understanding that would launch a 60-day period for nuclear-specific talks, underpins the 67.5% implied probability traders assign to a verifiable agreement by July 31. Statements from President Trump indicating a deal is near completion, combined with Iranian officials reviewing proposals on enriched uranium removal, enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, have sustained positive sentiment. Ongoing mediation and technical discussions on verification and stockpile destruction further support consensus that core issues can be bridged before the deadline, though unresolved details on enrichment duration and enforcement could still shift timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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