Traders assign a 98.9% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by August 31 due to the absence of any recent diplomatic breakthrough despite sustained U.S. mediation. Core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and limits on future alliances remain unresolved following multiple 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that yielded only prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian advances, have reinforced positions on both sides, while European proposals for monitored ceasefires have drawn limited engagement. The short remaining window leaves insufficient time for the complex negotiations, ratification steps, or concessions needed to bridge gaps. A sudden shift in battlefield conditions, high-level bilateral concessions, or new U.S. pressure could still alter the trajectory before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$228,775 Vol.
$228,775 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Sì
$228,775 Vol.
$228,775 Vol.
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98.9% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by August 31 due to the absence of any recent diplomatic breakthrough despite sustained U.S. mediation. Core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and limits on future alliances remain unresolved following multiple 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that yielded only prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian advances, have reinforced positions on both sides, while European proposals for monitored ceasefires have drawn limited engagement. The short remaining window leaves insufficient time for the complex negotiations, ratification steps, or concessions needed to bridge gaps. A sudden shift in battlefield conditions, high-level bilateral concessions, or new U.S. pressure could still alter the trajectory before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$228,775Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98.9% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by August 31 due to the absence of any recent diplomatic breakthrough despite sustained U.S. mediation. Core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and limits on future alliances remain unresolved following multiple 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that yielded only prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian advances, have reinforced positions on both sides, while European proposals for monitored ceasefires have drawn limited engagement. The short remaining window leaves insufficient time for the complex negotiations, ratification steps, or concessions needed to bridge gaps. A sudden shift in battlefield conditions, high-level bilateral concessions, or new U.S. pressure could still alter the trajectory before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$228,775Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.9% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by August 31 due to the absence of any recent diplomatic breakthrough despite sustained U.S. mediation. Core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and limits on future alliances remain unresolved following multiple 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that yielded only prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian advances, have reinforced positions on both sides, while European proposals for monitored ceasefires have drawn limited engagement. The short remaining window leaves insufficient time for the complex negotiations, ratification steps, or concessions needed to bridge gaps. A sudden shift in battlefield conditions, high-level bilateral concessions, or new U.S. pressure could still alter the trajectory before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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