Wildberries (RWB) faces substantial pressure from repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on its warehouses beginning in July 2026, which destroyed or damaged an estimated 17–43% of its logistics capacity and triggered hundreds of billions of rubles in losses for the company and third-party sellers. The firm carries roughly 1.3 trillion rubles in debt, predominantly short-term obligations to state-linked banks such as VTB, alongside reported covenant breaches and sharply negative cash flow in 2025. Despite these strains, Wildberries has avoided formal insolvency proceedings by staging compensation payments to sellers, securing tax deferrals, shifting toward partner warehouses, and benefiting from its scale and ties to major lenders that have refrained from accelerating repayment. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% probability on “No” rests on expectations of continued operational continuity and external support through the end of 2026 rather than an immediate bankruptcy filing.