Panama’s government has repeatedly affirmed sovereign control over the canal, with President José Raúl Mulino declaring the issue closed to negotiation and rejecting any transfer of authority. Recent Supreme Court rulings ending Chinese-linked port concessions at Balboa and Cristóbal have addressed U.S. concerns over foreign influence through domestic legal processes, while Panama advances its own multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects for water security and capacity expansion. Diplomatic engagement, including U.S. Secretary of State visits, has focused on cooperation rather than confrontation. These developments, occurring well short of any military or treaty-based shift, underpin the 97.3% trader-implied probability against U.S. acquisition before 2027. Only an abrupt, high-stakes escalation—such as unforeseen bilateral crisis or sudden policy reversal—could realistically alter the near-term outlook.