US President Donald Trump has intensified rhetoric claiming Mexican cartels control the country and warning that land-based actions against fentanyl trafficking networks will expand after maritime strikes reduced flows. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected unilateral US military operations on Mexican soil as violations of sovereignty while affirming bilateral security cooperation. Recent developments include US intelligence support for Mexican forces killing a top Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader, high-level bilateral meetings establishing joint working groups on cartel disruption, border security, and arms flows, plus US troop adjustments near the border amid cartel activity. Trader consensus on low odds for a US-initiated strike by year-end reflects these ongoing diplomatic and operational channels alongside Mexico’s firm opposition. Scheduled follow-up security talks could influence escalation risks.