EU sanctions phasing out all Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, combined with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and 2022 pipeline damage, anchor trader consensus against any restart before 2027. Europe has diversified supplies through LNG terminals and alternative contracts, while Germany shows no regulatory or political movement toward recertification or repairs despite occasional Russian offers. Recent developments include an EU court challenge by Nord Stream 2’s owner and public statements from Russian leadership highlighting intact capacity, yet these have produced no operational shifts. The 97.5% implied probability for “No” reflects these entrenched barriers and the timeline required for any reversal. Plausible but low-probability catalysts include a comprehensive peace agreement lifting sanctions or an acute European supply crisis prompting emergency policy changes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato3% probabilità
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3% probabilità
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions phasing out all Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, combined with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and 2022 pipeline damage, anchor trader consensus against any restart before 2027. Europe has diversified supplies through LNG terminals and alternative contracts, while Germany shows no regulatory or political movement toward recertification or repairs despite occasional Russian offers. Recent developments include an EU court challenge by Nord Stream 2’s owner and public statements from Russian leadership highlighting intact capacity, yet these have produced no operational shifts. The 97.5% implied probability for “No” reflects these entrenched barriers and the timeline required for any reversal. Plausible but low-probability catalysts include a comprehensive peace agreement lifting sanctions or an acute European supply crisis prompting emergency policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$151,561Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions phasing out all Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, combined with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and 2022 pipeline damage, anchor trader consensus against any restart before 2027. Europe has diversified supplies through LNG terminals and alternative contracts, while Germany shows no regulatory or political movement toward recertification or repairs despite occasional Russian offers. Recent developments include an EU court challenge by Nord Stream 2’s owner and public statements from Russian leadership highlighting intact capacity, yet these have produced no operational shifts. The 97.5% implied probability for “No” reflects these entrenched barriers and the timeline required for any reversal. Plausible but low-probability catalysts include a comprehensive peace agreement lifting sanctions or an acute European supply crisis prompting emergency policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$151,561Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...EU sanctions phasing out all Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, combined with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and 2022 pipeline damage, anchor trader consensus against any restart before 2027. Europe has diversified supplies through LNG terminals and alternative contracts, while Germany shows no regulatory or political movement toward recertification or repairs despite occasional Russian offers. Recent developments include an EU court challenge by Nord Stream 2’s owner and public statements from Russian leadership highlighting intact capacity, yet these have produced no operational shifts. The 97.5% implied probability for “No” reflects these entrenched barriers and the timeline required for any reversal. Plausible but low-probability catalysts include a comprehensive peace agreement lifting sanctions or an acute European supply crisis prompting emergency policy changes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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