Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and well above the 2% target—driven by war-related energy price spikes exceeding 10%. The ECB held rates steady at its April 30 meeting amid hawkish signals from policymakers like Lagarde, with recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist polls showing over 85% expecting the June move and potentially more later. No-change odds at 17% persist due to lingering growth concerns, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible amid restrictive monetary policy expectations. Key watch: May CPI flash and June 10-11 FOMC alignment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 82%
No change 18.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$238,269 Vol.
$238,269 Vol.
11 giu 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
18%
25 bps Increase
82%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 82%
No change 18.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$238,269 Vol.
$238,269 Vol.
11 giu 2026
50+ bps decrease
$46,902 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$40,730 Vol.
<1%
No change
$48,967 Vol.
18%
25 bps Increase
$54,992 Vol.
82%
50+ bps increase
$46,678 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and well above the 2% target—driven by war-related energy price spikes exceeding 10%. The ECB held rates steady at its April 30 meeting amid hawkish signals from policymakers like Lagarde, with recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist polls showing over 85% expecting the June move and potentially more later. No-change odds at 17% persist due to lingering growth concerns, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible amid restrictive monetary policy expectations. Key watch: May CPI flash and June 10-11 FOMC alignment.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$238,269Data di fine
11 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and well above the 2% target—driven by war-related energy price spikes exceeding 10%. The ECB held rates steady at its April 30 meeting amid hawkish signals from policymakers like Lagarde, with recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist polls showing over 85% expecting the June move and potentially more later. No-change odds at 17% persist due to lingering growth concerns, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible amid restrictive monetary policy expectations. Key watch: May CPI flash and June 10-11 FOMC alignment.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$238,269Data di fine
11 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and well above the 2% target—driven by war-related energy price spikes exceeding 10%. The ECB held rates steady at its April 30 meeting amid hawkish signals from policymakers like Lagarde, with recent Reuters and Bloomberg economist polls showing over 85% expecting the June move and potentially more later. No-change odds at 17% persist due to lingering growth concerns, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible amid restrictive monetary policy expectations. Key watch: May CPI flash and June 10-11 FOMC alignment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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