China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, combined with first-half results of 4.7 percent, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome at 88.5 percent. Q2 growth slowed to 4.3 percent amid weak consumption and property-sector drag, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing investment. Major forecasters, including the World Bank, OECD, and ADB, project full-year expansion between 4.4 percent and 4.6 percent, reflecting structural headwinds and gradual rebalancing toward consumption. Modest policy support measures are anticipated to help meet the target without pushing growth materially higher, limiting the 5.0–6.0 percent band to 10.7 percent. The remaining low-probability buckets reflect limited scope for sharp acceleration or contraction given current momentum and buffers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,0–5,0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 10.7%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.0%
$875,308 Vol.
$875,308 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
89%
5,0–6,0%
11%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 10.7%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.0%
$875,308 Vol.
$875,308 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$80,148 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0%
$219,722 Vol.
89%
5,0–6,0%
$78,494 Vol.
11%
6,0-7,0%
$82,124 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$115,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, combined with first-half results of 4.7 percent, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome at 88.5 percent. Q2 growth slowed to 4.3 percent amid weak consumption and property-sector drag, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing investment. Major forecasters, including the World Bank, OECD, and ADB, project full-year expansion between 4.4 percent and 4.6 percent, reflecting structural headwinds and gradual rebalancing toward consumption. Modest policy support measures are anticipated to help meet the target without pushing growth materially higher, limiting the 5.0–6.0 percent band to 10.7 percent. The remaining low-probability buckets reflect limited scope for sharp acceleration or contraction given current momentum and buffers.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$875,308Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, combined with first-half results of 4.7 percent, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome at 88.5 percent. Q2 growth slowed to 4.3 percent amid weak consumption and property-sector drag, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing investment. Major forecasters, including the World Bank, OECD, and ADB, project full-year expansion between 4.4 percent and 4.6 percent, reflecting structural headwinds and gradual rebalancing toward consumption. Modest policy support measures are anticipated to help meet the target without pushing growth materially higher, limiting the 5.0–6.0 percent band to 10.7 percent. The remaining low-probability buckets reflect limited scope for sharp acceleration or contraction given current momentum and buffers.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$875,308Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, combined with first-half results of 4.7 percent, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome at 88.5 percent. Q2 growth slowed to 4.3 percent amid weak consumption and property-sector drag, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing investment. Major forecasters, including the World Bank, OECD, and ADB, project full-year expansion between 4.4 percent and 4.6 percent, reflecting structural headwinds and gradual rebalancing toward consumption. Modest policy support measures are anticipated to help meet the target without pushing growth materially higher, limiting the 5.0–6.0 percent band to 10.7 percent. The remaining low-probability buckets reflect limited scope for sharp acceleration or contraction given current momentum and buffers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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