China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, announced at the annual parliament session in March, anchors trader expectations, reinforced by first-quarter results showing 5 percent expansion driven by industrial output and exports. Major institutions including the IMF and World Bank project 4.4 percent growth, citing resilient manufacturing investment and fiscal support that offset persistent property sector contraction and subdued household spending. External pressures from elevated energy costs linked to Middle East developments and ongoing trade frictions have tempered upside risks, while stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing demand keep outcomes above 5 percent unlikely. These factors sustain the strong consensus around the 4-5 percent band.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,0–5,0% 73%
5,0–6,0% 23.8%
6,0-7,0% 2.6%
3,0–4,0% 1.5%
$527,845 Vol.
$527,845 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
2%
4,0–5,0%
73%
5,0–6,0%
24%
6,0-7,0%
3%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
<1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 73%
5,0–6,0% 23.8%
6,0-7,0% 2.6%
3,0–4,0% 1.5%
$527,845 Vol.
$527,845 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
$41,430 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$40,608 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$21,014 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$43,445 Vol.
2%
4,0–5,0%
$135,981 Vol.
73%
5,0–6,0%
$49,129 Vol.
24%
6,0-7,0%
$48,008 Vol.
3%
7,0–8,0%
$44,478 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$20,196 Vol.
<1%
9,0%+
$83,556 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, announced at the annual parliament session in March, anchors trader expectations, reinforced by first-quarter results showing 5 percent expansion driven by industrial output and exports. Major institutions including the IMF and World Bank project 4.4 percent growth, citing resilient manufacturing investment and fiscal support that offset persistent property sector contraction and subdued household spending. External pressures from elevated energy costs linked to Middle East developments and ongoing trade frictions have tempered upside risks, while stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing demand keep outcomes above 5 percent unlikely. These factors sustain the strong consensus around the 4-5 percent band.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$527,845Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, announced at the annual parliament session in March, anchors trader expectations, reinforced by first-quarter results showing 5 percent expansion driven by industrial output and exports. Major institutions including the IMF and World Bank project 4.4 percent growth, citing resilient manufacturing investment and fiscal support that offset persistent property sector contraction and subdued household spending. External pressures from elevated energy costs linked to Middle East developments and ongoing trade frictions have tempered upside risks, while stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing demand keep outcomes above 5 percent unlikely. These factors sustain the strong consensus around the 4-5 percent band.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$527,845Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, announced at the annual parliament session in March, anchors trader expectations, reinforced by first-quarter results showing 5 percent expansion driven by industrial output and exports. Major institutions including the IMF and World Bank project 4.4 percent growth, citing resilient manufacturing investment and fiscal support that offset persistent property sector contraction and subdued household spending. External pressures from elevated energy costs linked to Middle East developments and ongoing trade frictions have tempered upside risks, while stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing demand keep outcomes above 5 percent unlikely. These factors sustain the strong consensus around the 4-5 percent band.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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