Recent downgrades to UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026, now clustered around 0.6-0.8% by forecasters including the IMF, OECD, and EY, reflect the dominant influence of energy supply disruptions and elevated inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict. These shocks have reversed prior expectations of 1.3% expansion, with higher gas and oil prices tightening household budgets, raising borrowing costs, and prompting the Bank of England to delay rate cuts. First-quarter GDP rose a solid 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, yet forward-looking indicators such as PMI new orders signal slowing momentum into the second half. With market-implied probabilities tightly distributed between the 0-1% and 1-2% bands, traders are pricing modest positive growth as the base case while assigning material weight to downside risks if energy prices remain elevated.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4-5% 34.5%
<0 20%
5%+ 6.0%
3-4% 4.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 feb 2027
<0
20%
0-1%
44%
1-2%
41%
2-3%
30%
3-4%
6%
4-5%
34%
5%+
22%
4-5% 34.5%
<0 20%
5%+ 6.0%
3-4% 4.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 feb 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
20%
0-1%
$386 Vol.
44%
1-2%
$210 Vol.
41%
2-3%
$247 Vol.
30%
3-4%
$201 Vol.
6%
4-5%
$428 Vol.
34%
5%+
$252 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downgrades to UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026, now clustered around 0.6-0.8% by forecasters including the IMF, OECD, and EY, reflect the dominant influence of energy supply disruptions and elevated inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict. These shocks have reversed prior expectations of 1.3% expansion, with higher gas and oil prices tightening household budgets, raising borrowing costs, and prompting the Bank of England to delay rate cuts. First-quarter GDP rose a solid 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, yet forward-looking indicators such as PMI new orders signal slowing momentum into the second half. With market-implied probabilities tightly distributed between the 0-1% and 1-2% bands, traders are pricing modest positive growth as the base case while assigning material weight to downside risks if energy prices remain elevated.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$2,068Data di fine
12 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downgrades to UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026, now clustered around 0.6-0.8% by forecasters including the IMF, OECD, and EY, reflect the dominant influence of energy supply disruptions and elevated inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict. These shocks have reversed prior expectations of 1.3% expansion, with higher gas and oil prices tightening household budgets, raising borrowing costs, and prompting the Bank of England to delay rate cuts. First-quarter GDP rose a solid 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, yet forward-looking indicators such as PMI new orders signal slowing momentum into the second half. With market-implied probabilities tightly distributed between the 0-1% and 1-2% bands, traders are pricing modest positive growth as the base case while assigning material weight to downside risks if energy prices remain elevated.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,068Data di fine
12 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downgrades to UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026, now clustered around 0.6-0.8% by forecasters including the IMF, OECD, and EY, reflect the dominant influence of energy supply disruptions and elevated inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict. These shocks have reversed prior expectations of 1.3% expansion, with higher gas and oil prices tightening household budgets, raising borrowing costs, and prompting the Bank of England to delay rate cuts. First-quarter GDP rose a solid 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, yet forward-looking indicators such as PMI new orders signal slowing momentum into the second half. With market-implied probabilities tightly distributed between the 0-1% and 1-2% bands, traders are pricing modest positive growth as the base case while assigning material weight to downside risks if energy prices remain elevated.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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