Recent UK economic data and forecaster revisions have anchored trader sentiment around subdued 2026 GDP expansion near 1%. Official figures showed 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2026 after a revised 1.4% annual gain in 2025, while underlying momentum remains weak amid elevated uncertainty. Energy price shocks linked to geopolitical tensions, combined with CPI inflation holding at 2.6% in June, have limited Bank of England rate-cut expectations and weighed on consumption and investment. Independent projections from the IMF, OECD, EY, and HM Treasury panel cluster between 0.9% and 1.4%, reinforcing the 66.6% implied probability on 1-2% annual growth while leaving room for downside outcomes in the 0-1% band if external pressures intensify.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1-2% 66.7%
0-1% 26%
<0 5.4%
2-3% 3.5%
$72,655 Vol.
$72,655 Vol.
12 feb 2027
<0
5%
0-1%
26%
1-2%
67%
2-3%
3%
3-4%
2%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 66.7%
0-1% 26%
<0 5.4%
2-3% 3.5%
$72,655 Vol.
$72,655 Vol.
12 feb 2027
<0
$11,068 Vol.
5%
0-1%
$18,621 Vol.
26%
1-2%
$23,821 Vol.
67%
2-3%
$4,159 Vol.
3%
3-4%
$3,146 Vol.
2%
4-5%
$8,288 Vol.
<1%
5%+
$3,552 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK economic data and forecaster revisions have anchored trader sentiment around subdued 2026 GDP expansion near 1%. Official figures showed 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2026 after a revised 1.4% annual gain in 2025, while underlying momentum remains weak amid elevated uncertainty. Energy price shocks linked to geopolitical tensions, combined with CPI inflation holding at 2.6% in June, have limited Bank of England rate-cut expectations and weighed on consumption and investment. Independent projections from the IMF, OECD, EY, and HM Treasury panel cluster between 0.9% and 1.4%, reinforcing the 66.6% implied probability on 1-2% annual growth while leaving room for downside outcomes in the 0-1% band if external pressures intensify.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$72,655Data di fine
12 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK economic data and forecaster revisions have anchored trader sentiment around subdued 2026 GDP expansion near 1%. Official figures showed 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2026 after a revised 1.4% annual gain in 2025, while underlying momentum remains weak amid elevated uncertainty. Energy price shocks linked to geopolitical tensions, combined with CPI inflation holding at 2.6% in June, have limited Bank of England rate-cut expectations and weighed on consumption and investment. Independent projections from the IMF, OECD, EY, and HM Treasury panel cluster between 0.9% and 1.4%, reinforcing the 66.6% implied probability on 1-2% annual growth while leaving room for downside outcomes in the 0-1% band if external pressures intensify.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$72,655Data di fine
12 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK economic data and forecaster revisions have anchored trader sentiment around subdued 2026 GDP expansion near 1%. Official figures showed 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2026 after a revised 1.4% annual gain in 2025, while underlying momentum remains weak amid elevated uncertainty. Energy price shocks linked to geopolitical tensions, combined with CPI inflation holding at 2.6% in June, have limited Bank of England rate-cut expectations and weighed on consumption and investment. Independent projections from the IMF, OECD, EY, and HM Treasury panel cluster between 0.9% and 1.4%, reinforcing the 66.6% implied probability on 1-2% annual growth while leaving room for downside outcomes in the 0-1% band if external pressures intensify.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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