Germany's subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook reflects persistent headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, which prompted the government to halve its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 0.5 percent in April. Q1 expansion of 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter provided modest momentum, yet analysts highlight limited carryover given weak industrial output, demographic constraints, and rising inflation pressures. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered between contraction and modest expansion because quarterly volatility hinges on export trends and fiscal stimulus effects, with no dominant catalyst yet to shift consensus toward stronger readings above 1 percent. Traders are monitoring May PMI releases and energy price trajectories for clearer signals ahead of the June data release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0.4-0.6% 51%
1.3%+ 47%
1.0-1.2% 46%
0.7-0.9% 25%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 lug 2026
≤0.0%
47%
0.1-0.3%
47%
0.4-0.6%
27%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
46%
1.3%+
47%
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.3%+ 47%
1.0-1.2% 46%
0.7-0.9% 25%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 lug 2026
≤0.0%
$8 Vol.
47%
0.1-0.3%
$5 Vol.
47%
0.4-0.6%
$4 Vol.
27%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
25%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
46%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook reflects persistent headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, which prompted the government to halve its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 0.5 percent in April. Q1 expansion of 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter provided modest momentum, yet analysts highlight limited carryover given weak industrial output, demographic constraints, and rising inflation pressures. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered between contraction and modest expansion because quarterly volatility hinges on export trends and fiscal stimulus effects, with no dominant catalyst yet to shift consensus toward stronger readings above 1 percent. Traders are monitoring May PMI releases and energy price trajectories for clearer signals ahead of the June data release.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volume
$17Data di fine
30 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook reflects persistent headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, which prompted the government to halve its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 0.5 percent in April. Q1 expansion of 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter provided modest momentum, yet analysts highlight limited carryover given weak industrial output, demographic constraints, and rising inflation pressures. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered between contraction and modest expansion because quarterly volatility hinges on export trends and fiscal stimulus effects, with no dominant catalyst yet to shift consensus toward stronger readings above 1 percent. Traders are monitoring May PMI releases and energy price trajectories for clearer signals ahead of the June data release.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17Data di fine
30 lug 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany's subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook reflects persistent headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, which prompted the government to halve its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 0.5 percent in April. Q1 expansion of 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter provided modest momentum, yet analysts highlight limited carryover given weak industrial output, demographic constraints, and rising inflation pressures. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered between contraction and modest expansion because quarterly volatility hinges on export trends and fiscal stimulus effects, with no dominant catalyst yet to shift consensus toward stronger readings above 1 percent. Traders are monitoring May PMI releases and energy price trajectories for clearer signals ahead of the June data release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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