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Economy·Economic Policy

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Economy·Economic Policy

GDP growth in 2026

lug 30

gen 29, 2027

lug 30

gen 29, 2027

>2.5% 73%

2.0–2.5% 12%

1.5–2.0% 4.8%

<0.5% 2.7%

Polymarket

$42,874 Vol.

>2.5% 73%

2.0–2.5% 12%

1.5–2.0% 4.8%

<0.5% 2.7%

Polymarket

$42,874 Vol.

<0.5%

$4,480 Vol.

3%

0.5–1.0%

$15,856 Vol.

2%

1.0–1.5%

$2,202 Vol.

<1%

1.5–2.0%

$2,654 Vol.

5%

2.0–2.5%

$4,603 Vol.

12%

>2.5%

$13,079 Vol.

73%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at 1.6% annualized has tempered near-term momentum, yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (46%) to full-year growth exceeding 2.5%. This positioning reflects expectations that fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act—tax cuts boosting consumption and immediate expensing spurring investment—will outweigh drags from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy-price spikes tied to Middle East conflict. Official forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including the CBO and FOMC’s March median, while labor-market resilience and potential further monetary easing provide additional support. Key upcoming releases, such as the final Q1 GDP on June 25 and subsequent quarterly data, alongside FOMC communications, will likely influence revisions to these market-implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,874
Data di fine
29 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at 1.6% annualized has tempered near-term momentum, yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (46%) to full-year growth exceeding 2.5%. This positioning reflects expectations that fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act—tax cuts boosting consumption and immediate expensing spurring investment—will outweigh drags from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy-price spikes tied to Middle East conflict. Official forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including the CBO and FOMC’s March median, while labor-market resilience and potential further monetary easing provide additional support. Key upcoming releases, such as the final Q1 GDP on June 25 and subsequent quarterly data, alongside FOMC communications, will likely influence revisions to these market-implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,874
Data di fine
29 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Domande frequenti

"GDP growth in 2026" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 6 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è ">2.5%" a 73%, seguito da "2.0–2.5%" a 12%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 73¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 73% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "GDP growth in 2026" ha generato $42.9K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 12, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "GDP growth in 2026", esplora i 6 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "GDP growth in 2026" è ">2.5%" a 73%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 73% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "2.0–2.5%" a 12%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "GDP growth in 2026" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.