Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of 3.7% real GDP growth for Q2 2026 as of May 14 has lifted sentiment toward the 2.5–3.0% and 3.0–3.5% bins, yet trader consensus on Polymarket remains tightly clustered, with 2.0–2.5% (24.5%) edging 2.5–3.0% (22.0%) amid offsetting weak April nonfarm payrolls of just 115,000—down from March's 185,000—and steady 4.3% unemployment rate signaling labor market deceleration. Q1 GDP expanded 2.0% annualized per BEA's April 30 advance estimate, rebounding from Q4 2025's slowdown but missing 2.2–2.3% expectations, while Fed's April rate hold underscores policy caution. Key differentiators include upcoming May CPI, ISM manufacturing, and nonfarm payrolls releases, which could sway the balance between sub-2.5% cooling risks and sustained consumer-driven expansion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 19%
3.0–3.5% 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 lug 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
22%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
19%
3.0–3.5%
14%
≥3.5%
7%
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 19%
3.0–3.5% 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 lug 2026
<1.0%
$593 Vol.
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 Vol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 Vol.
22%
2.0–2.5%
$526 Vol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$410 Vol.
19%
3.0–3.5%
$661 Vol.
14%
≥3.5%
$509 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of 3.7% real GDP growth for Q2 2026 as of May 14 has lifted sentiment toward the 2.5–3.0% and 3.0–3.5% bins, yet trader consensus on Polymarket remains tightly clustered, with 2.0–2.5% (24.5%) edging 2.5–3.0% (22.0%) amid offsetting weak April nonfarm payrolls of just 115,000—down from March's 185,000—and steady 4.3% unemployment rate signaling labor market deceleration. Q1 GDP expanded 2.0% annualized per BEA's April 30 advance estimate, rebounding from Q4 2025's slowdown but missing 2.2–2.3% expectations, while Fed's April rate hold underscores policy caution. Key differentiators include upcoming May CPI, ISM manufacturing, and nonfarm payrolls releases, which could sway the balance between sub-2.5% cooling risks and sustained consumer-driven expansion.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,345Data di fine
30 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of 3.7% real GDP growth for Q2 2026 as of May 14 has lifted sentiment toward the 2.5–3.0% and 3.0–3.5% bins, yet trader consensus on Polymarket remains tightly clustered, with 2.0–2.5% (24.5%) edging 2.5–3.0% (22.0%) amid offsetting weak April nonfarm payrolls of just 115,000—down from March's 185,000—and steady 4.3% unemployment rate signaling labor market deceleration. Q1 GDP expanded 2.0% annualized per BEA's April 30 advance estimate, rebounding from Q4 2025's slowdown but missing 2.2–2.3% expectations, while Fed's April rate hold underscores policy caution. Key differentiators include upcoming May CPI, ISM manufacturing, and nonfarm payrolls releases, which could sway the balance between sub-2.5% cooling risks and sustained consumer-driven expansion.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$3,345Data di fine
30 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast of 3.7% real GDP growth for Q2 2026 as of May 14 has lifted sentiment toward the 2.5–3.0% and 3.0–3.5% bins, yet trader consensus on Polymarket remains tightly clustered, with 2.0–2.5% (24.5%) edging 2.5–3.0% (22.0%) amid offsetting weak April nonfarm payrolls of just 115,000—down from March's 185,000—and steady 4.3% unemployment rate signaling labor market deceleration. Q1 GDP expanded 2.0% annualized per BEA's April 30 advance estimate, rebounding from Q4 2025's slowdown but missing 2.2–2.3% expectations, while Fed's April rate hold underscores policy caution. Key differentiators include upcoming May CPI, ISM manufacturing, and nonfarm payrolls releases, which could sway the balance between sub-2.5% cooling risks and sustained consumer-driven expansion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti