Elevated euro-area inflation, projected by ECB staff at 3.0% for 2026 amid Middle East energy price shocks, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against any rate cut this year. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June hike, with July’s hold and September meeting pricing a further 25-basis-point increase reflecting data-dependent hawkishness, resilient core readings, and second-round wage effects that outweigh the subdued 0.8% GDP growth forecast. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, aligns with a higher-for-longer stance through year-end. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper disinflation trajectory could still reopen cut discussions, though incoming data continue to reinforce the current odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
9% probabilità
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
9% probabilità
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, projected by ECB staff at 3.0% for 2026 amid Middle East energy price shocks, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against any rate cut this year. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June hike, with July’s hold and September meeting pricing a further 25-basis-point increase reflecting data-dependent hawkishness, resilient core readings, and second-round wage effects that outweigh the subdued 0.8% GDP growth forecast. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, aligns with a higher-for-longer stance through year-end. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper disinflation trajectory could still reopen cut discussions, though incoming data continue to reinforce the current odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,480Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, projected by ECB staff at 3.0% for 2026 amid Middle East energy price shocks, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against any rate cut this year. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June hike, with July’s hold and September meeting pricing a further 25-basis-point increase reflecting data-dependent hawkishness, resilient core readings, and second-round wage effects that outweigh the subdued 0.8% GDP growth forecast. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, aligns with a higher-for-longer stance through year-end. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper disinflation trajectory could still reopen cut discussions, though incoming data continue to reinforce the current odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,480Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation, projected by ECB staff at 3.0% for 2026 amid Middle East energy price shocks, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against any rate cut this year. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% following the June hike, with July’s hold and September meeting pricing a further 25-basis-point increase reflecting data-dependent hawkishness, resilient core readings, and second-round wage effects that outweigh the subdued 0.8% GDP growth forecast. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, aligns with a higher-for-longer stance through year-end. A swift geopolitical de-escalation or sharper disinflation trajectory could still reopen cut discussions, though incoming data continue to reinforce the current odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti