Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting 3.0% headline inflation for 2026 following the June 25-basis-point hike that raised the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of no ECB rate cut this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy prices, feeding into core measures and prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady in July while remaining data-dependent and open to further tightening. Resilient labor markets and above-target inflation outlooks outweigh the subdued 0.8% GDP growth forecast, aligning trader consensus with a higher-for-longer policy stance. A sharper disinflation path or pronounced economic downturn could reopen cut discussions, though recent data flows continue to reinforce the current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
9% probabilità
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
9% probabilità
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting 3.0% headline inflation for 2026 following the June 25-basis-point hike that raised the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of no ECB rate cut this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy prices, feeding into core measures and prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady in July while remaining data-dependent and open to further tightening. Resilient labor markets and above-target inflation outlooks outweigh the subdued 0.8% GDP growth forecast, aligning trader consensus with a higher-for-longer policy stance. A sharper disinflation path or pronounced economic downturn could reopen cut discussions, though recent data flows continue to reinforce the current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,480Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting 3.0% headline inflation for 2026 following the June 25-basis-point hike that raised the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of no ECB rate cut this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy prices, feeding into core measures and prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady in July while remaining data-dependent and open to further tightening. Resilient labor markets and above-target inflation outlooks outweigh the subdued 0.8% GDP growth forecast, aligning trader consensus with a higher-for-longer policy stance. A sharper disinflation path or pronounced economic downturn could reopen cut discussions, though recent data flows continue to reinforce the current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,480Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting 3.0% headline inflation for 2026 following the June 25-basis-point hike that raised the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, underpins the 91% market-implied probability of no ECB rate cut this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy prices, feeding into core measures and prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady in July while remaining data-dependent and open to further tightening. Resilient labor markets and above-target inflation outlooks outweigh the subdued 0.8% GDP growth forecast, aligning trader consensus with a higher-for-longer policy stance. A sharper disinflation path or pronounced economic downturn could reopen cut discussions, though recent data flows continue to reinforce the current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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