Broadening inflationary pressures and resilient growth have positioned a 25 basis point repo rate increase as the leading market-implied outcome for the Reserve Bank of India’s December policy decision, carrying 56% implied probability. August CPI inflation reached 4.82%, exceeding the 4% target for a third straight month amid rising food, energy, and tradables prices, while Q2 GDP growth surprised at 7.8% with non-food credit expanding near 18%. Analysts widely expect the RBI to begin tightening at the October 5-7 meeting with a 25 bps hike to 5.50%, followed by another move in December, shifting toward calibrated tightening amid elevated crude oil above $100 and firmer global yields. Strong investment demand and credit growth further support the case for modest policy recalibration before year-end.