South Korea’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market shows closely matched implied probabilities between the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% buckets amid robust export momentum offset by moderating domestic demand. Upward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts—OECD at 3.7%, ADB at 3.2%, Bank of Korea at 3.3%, and KDI at 3.2%—reflect the AI-driven semiconductor supercycle, with September exports surging 83.5% year-over-year to a record $120.9 billion and semiconductor shipments jumping 263%. Q2 2026 growth printed near 3.7–3.8%, supported by strong first-half performance of 3.8%, yet risks from elevated energy prices, potential U.S. tariff hikes, and lagged consumption recovery introduce uncertainty around sequential momentum. Traders are pricing in continued but possibly tempered expansion as Q3 data approach release, with export strength as the dominant catalyst.