Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market reflects trader focus on sticky price pressures in food, services, and energy amid earlier geopolitical supply shocks, with recent data showing the July annual rate easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June and re-entering the 1.5-4.5% target band. Upward revisions to year-end forecasts, including the government's July update to 5.1% and Focus survey expectations around 4.3-4.6%, have supported the 54.3% implied probability for the 5.00-5.49% bucket as the leading outcome, ahead of higher ranges. Central bank communications on monetary policy tightening and slower disinflation relative to the 3% midpoint continue to shape consensus, with upcoming releases likely to influence any further shifts in these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato5,00-5,49% 53.9%
5,50-5,99% 22.9%
4,50-4,99% 15.3%
4,00-4,49% 2.9%
$92,937 Vol.
$92,937 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<3,00%
2%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50-3,99%
2%
4,00-4,49%
3%
4,50-4,99%
15%
5,00-5,49%
54%
5,50-5,99%
23%
6,00-6,49%
2%
6,50-6,99%
<1%
7,00%+
2%
5,00-5,49% 53.9%
5,50-5,99% 22.9%
4,50-4,99% 15.3%
4,00-4,49% 2.9%
$92,937 Vol.
$92,937 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<3,00%
$5,659 Vol.
2%
3,00-3,49%
$5,739 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99%
$13,142 Vol.
2%
4,00-4,49%
$13,506 Vol.
3%
4,50-4,99%
$14,908 Vol.
15%
5,00-5,49%
$13,104 Vol.
54%
5,50-5,99%
$9,078 Vol.
23%
6,00-6,49%
$6,438 Vol.
2%
6,50-6,99%
$6,612 Vol.
<1%
7,00%+
$4,751 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market reflects trader focus on sticky price pressures in food, services, and energy amid earlier geopolitical supply shocks, with recent data showing the July annual rate easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June and re-entering the 1.5-4.5% target band. Upward revisions to year-end forecasts, including the government's July update to 5.1% and Focus survey expectations around 4.3-4.6%, have supported the 54.3% implied probability for the 5.00-5.49% bucket as the leading outcome, ahead of higher ranges. Central bank communications on monetary policy tightening and slower disinflation relative to the 3% midpoint continue to shape consensus, with upcoming releases likely to influence any further shifts in these probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$92,937Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market reflects trader focus on sticky price pressures in food, services, and energy amid earlier geopolitical supply shocks, with recent data showing the July annual rate easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June and re-entering the 1.5-4.5% target band. Upward revisions to year-end forecasts, including the government's July update to 5.1% and Focus survey expectations around 4.3-4.6%, have supported the 54.3% implied probability for the 5.00-5.49% bucket as the leading outcome, ahead of higher ranges. Central bank communications on monetary policy tightening and slower disinflation relative to the 3% midpoint continue to shape consensus, with upcoming releases likely to influence any further shifts in these probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$92,937Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market reflects trader focus on sticky price pressures in food, services, and energy amid earlier geopolitical supply shocks, with recent data showing the July annual rate easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June and re-entering the 1.5-4.5% target band. Upward revisions to year-end forecasts, including the government's July update to 5.1% and Focus survey expectations around 4.3-4.6%, have supported the 54.3% implied probability for the 5.00-5.49% bucket as the leading outcome, ahead of higher ranges. Central bank communications on monetary policy tightening and slower disinflation relative to the 3% midpoint continue to shape consensus, with upcoming releases likely to influence any further shifts in these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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