Polymarket traders' consensus implies Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation near 5.25%, with razor-thin odds separating the 5.00-5.49% (23.6%) and 5.50-5.99% (21.5%) bins, reflecting heightened uncertainty after April's IPCA rose 0.67% monthly—below expectations—but lifted the 12-month rate to 4.39% from 4.14%, nearing the 4.5% upper target band. Banco Central do Brasil's Boletim Focus survey pegs end-2026 IPCA at 4.89%, up from prior estimates amid oil shocks from Iran tensions feeding transport costs, yet tempered by Selic cuts to 14.50% and a firmer real (dollar at R$4.89). Key swing factors include May-June energy pass-through and Copom's June 17-18 meeting; persistent fiscal pressures could tip toward higher bins, while cooling core inflation favors the lower edge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato5,00-5,49% 27.3%
5,50-5,99% 20.0%
4,50-4,99% 16.8%
7,00%+ 8.1%
$57,289 Vol.
$57,289 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
9%
3,50-3,99%
3%
4,00-4,49%
7%
4,50-4,99%
17%
5,00-5,49%
24%
5,50-5,99%
22%
6,00-6,49%
6%
6,50-6,99%
6%
7,00%+
9%
5,00-5,49% 27.3%
5,50-5,99% 20.0%
4,50-4,99% 16.8%
7,00%+ 8.1%
$57,289 Vol.
$57,289 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<3,00%
$4,305 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$4,370 Vol.
9%
3,50-3,99%
$8,991 Vol.
3%
4,00-4,49%
$7,722 Vol.
7%
4,50-4,99%
$7,022 Vol.
17%
5,00-5,49%
$6,104 Vol.
24%
5,50-5,99%
$5,690 Vol.
22%
6,00-6,49%
$4,670 Vol.
6%
6,50-6,99%
$4,858 Vol.
6%
7,00%+
$3,556 Vol.
9%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders' consensus implies Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation near 5.25%, with razor-thin odds separating the 5.00-5.49% (23.6%) and 5.50-5.99% (21.5%) bins, reflecting heightened uncertainty after April's IPCA rose 0.67% monthly—below expectations—but lifted the 12-month rate to 4.39% from 4.14%, nearing the 4.5% upper target band. Banco Central do Brasil's Boletim Focus survey pegs end-2026 IPCA at 4.89%, up from prior estimates amid oil shocks from Iran tensions feeding transport costs, yet tempered by Selic cuts to 14.50% and a firmer real (dollar at R$4.89). Key swing factors include May-June energy pass-through and Copom's June 17-18 meeting; persistent fiscal pressures could tip toward higher bins, while cooling core inflation favors the lower edge.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$57,289Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders' consensus implies Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation near 5.25%, with razor-thin odds separating the 5.00-5.49% (23.6%) and 5.50-5.99% (21.5%) bins, reflecting heightened uncertainty after April's IPCA rose 0.67% monthly—below expectations—but lifted the 12-month rate to 4.39% from 4.14%, nearing the 4.5% upper target band. Banco Central do Brasil's Boletim Focus survey pegs end-2026 IPCA at 4.89%, up from prior estimates amid oil shocks from Iran tensions feeding transport costs, yet tempered by Selic cuts to 14.50% and a firmer real (dollar at R$4.89). Key swing factors include May-June energy pass-through and Copom's June 17-18 meeting; persistent fiscal pressures could tip toward higher bins, while cooling core inflation favors the lower edge.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$57,289Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus implies Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation near 5.25%, with razor-thin odds separating the 5.00-5.49% (23.6%) and 5.50-5.99% (21.5%) bins, reflecting heightened uncertainty after April's IPCA rose 0.67% monthly—below expectations—but lifted the 12-month rate to 4.39% from 4.14%, nearing the 4.5% upper target band. Banco Central do Brasil's Boletim Focus survey pegs end-2026 IPCA at 4.89%, up from prior estimates amid oil shocks from Iran tensions feeding transport costs, yet tempered by Selic cuts to 14.50% and a firmer real (dollar at R$4.89). Key swing factors include May-June energy pass-through and Copom's June 17-18 meeting; persistent fiscal pressures could tip toward higher bins, while cooling core inflation favors the lower edge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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