The tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil reflects a volatile polling landscape, with recent surveys showing mixed results including a May Paraná Pesquisas lead for Neto at 47.8% to 38.7%. Bahia’s long PT dominance since 2007 gives Rodrigues incumbency advantages through party machinery and established voter bases, while Neto’s strong municipal performances and former Salvador mayoral record sustain opposition momentum. Polarization tied to national PT trends and economic sentiment keeps first-round intentions competitive ahead of the October 4 vote and possible runoff, with separation likely to emerge from August campaigning, endorsements, or shifts in rejection rates among undecided voters.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Vol.
$13,694 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Vol.
$13,694 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,666 Vol.
52%
ACM Neto
$3,660 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil reflects a volatile polling landscape, with recent surveys showing mixed results including a May Paraná Pesquisas lead for Neto at 47.8% to 38.7%. Bahia’s long PT dominance since 2007 gives Rodrigues incumbency advantages through party machinery and established voter bases, while Neto’s strong municipal performances and former Salvador mayoral record sustain opposition momentum. Polarization tied to national PT trends and economic sentiment keeps first-round intentions competitive ahead of the October 4 vote and possible runoff, with separation likely to emerge from August campaigning, endorsements, or shifts in rejection rates among undecided voters.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$13,694Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil reflects a volatile polling landscape, with recent surveys showing mixed results including a May Paraná Pesquisas lead for Neto at 47.8% to 38.7%. Bahia’s long PT dominance since 2007 gives Rodrigues incumbency advantages through party machinery and established voter bases, while Neto’s strong municipal performances and former Salvador mayoral record sustain opposition momentum. Polarization tied to national PT trends and economic sentiment keeps first-round intentions competitive ahead of the October 4 vote and possible runoff, with separation likely to emerge from August campaigning, endorsements, or shifts in rejection rates among undecided voters.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,694Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil reflects a volatile polling landscape, with recent surveys showing mixed results including a May Paraná Pesquisas lead for Neto at 47.8% to 38.7%. Bahia’s long PT dominance since 2007 gives Rodrigues incumbency advantages through party machinery and established voter bases, while Neto’s strong municipal performances and former Salvador mayoral record sustain opposition momentum. Polarization tied to national PT trends and economic sentiment keeps first-round intentions competitive ahead of the October 4 vote and possible runoff, with separation likely to emerge from August campaigning, endorsements, or shifts in rejection rates among undecided voters.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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