Jerônimo Rodrigues secured re-election as Bahia governor in the first round on October 4, 2026, capturing roughly 55.5% of valid votes against ACM Neto’s 44%, a margin that triggered immediate market pricing near 99%. The outcome reflects incumbency advantages, continuity of PT governance since 2007, and Rodrigues’ association with President Lula during the campaign. Late polling shifts and voter mobilization around education, health infrastructure, and state programs consolidated support, while other listed candidates remained marginal. Full official certification by electoral authorities and any narrow procedural reviews represent the primary remaining variables that could still alter final confirmation, though the scale of the first-round majority makes such adjustments improbable.