The São Paulo Senate race for two seats renewing on October 4 features a deeply fragmented field of more than two dozen registered candidates, producing the even 50% pricing across most names and compressed probabilities for listed contenders such as Marina Silva. Recent state-level intention surveys show Simone Tebet and Marina Silva holding narrow leads while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, Ricardo Salles, and several others remain within striking distance, underscoring the absence of a clear frontrunner. This multi-candidate dynamic, typical of Brazil’s open-list proportional system for the Federal Senate, sustains split support and limits any single outcome from pulling decisively ahead in trader assessments. Upcoming campaign events, party alliances, and further polling releases before the single-round vote could shift the balance among the top tier.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMarina Silva 31%
Soninha Francine 26%
André do Prado 22%
Ednelson Cesaretti 22%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Marina Silva
31%
Soninha Francine
26%
André do Prado
22%
Ednelson Cesaretti
22%
Simone Tebet
21%
Petter Maahs
21%
Guilherme Derrite
22%
Geraldo Rufino
21%
Weller Gonçalves
21%
William Teixeira
22%
Maíra de Souza
18%
Marcio Alves
22%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
18%
Salles
15%
Marina Silva 31%
Soninha Francine 26%
André do Prado 22%
Ednelson Cesaretti 22%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Marina Silva
$20 Vol.
31%
Soninha Francine
$20 Vol.
26%
André do Prado
$20 Vol.
22%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$20 Vol.
22%
Simone Tebet
$20 Vol.
21%
Petter Maahs
$20 Vol.
21%
Guilherme Derrite
$40 Vol.
22%
Geraldo Rufino
$20 Vol.
21%
Weller Gonçalves
$58 Vol.
21%
William Teixeira
$40 Vol.
22%
Maíra de Souza
$20 Vol.
18%
Marcio Alves
$40 Vol.
22%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$59 Vol.
18%
Salles
$20 Vol.
15%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats renewing on October 4 features a deeply fragmented field of more than two dozen registered candidates, producing the even 50% pricing across most names and compressed probabilities for listed contenders such as Marina Silva. Recent state-level intention surveys show Simone Tebet and Marina Silva holding narrow leads while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, Ricardo Salles, and several others remain within striking distance, underscoring the absence of a clear frontrunner. This multi-candidate dynamic, typical of Brazil’s open-list proportional system for the Federal Senate, sustains split support and limits any single outcome from pulling decisively ahead in trader assessments. Upcoming campaign events, party alliances, and further polling releases before the single-round vote could shift the balance among the top tier.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$416Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats renewing on October 4 features a deeply fragmented field of more than two dozen registered candidates, producing the even 50% pricing across most names and compressed probabilities for listed contenders such as Marina Silva. Recent state-level intention surveys show Simone Tebet and Marina Silva holding narrow leads while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, Ricardo Salles, and several others remain within striking distance, underscoring the absence of a clear frontrunner. This multi-candidate dynamic, typical of Brazil’s open-list proportional system for the Federal Senate, sustains split support and limits any single outcome from pulling decisively ahead in trader assessments. Upcoming campaign events, party alliances, and further polling releases before the single-round vote could shift the balance among the top tier.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$416Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo Senate race for two seats renewing on October 4 features a deeply fragmented field of more than two dozen registered candidates, producing the even 50% pricing across most names and compressed probabilities for listed contenders such as Marina Silva. Recent state-level intention surveys show Simone Tebet and Marina Silva holding narrow leads while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, Ricardo Salles, and several others remain within striking distance, underscoring the absence of a clear frontrunner. This multi-candidate dynamic, typical of Brazil’s open-list proportional system for the Federal Senate, sustains split support and limits any single outcome from pulling decisively ahead in trader assessments. Upcoming campaign events, party alliances, and further polling releases before the single-round vote could shift the balance among the top tier.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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