The fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates, including incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others, has kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 40% for the top contenders in Minas Gerais' first-round vote. Recent campaign launches ahead of the October 4 first round, combined with Zema's local profile as the outgoing governor of this key swing state and Santos' gains among younger voters via social media, sustain the close positioning. National polling averages show Lula leading but with support in the high 30s to low 40s amid the split opposition, while scheduled debates and state-specific turnout patterns could shift regional margins before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRenan Santos 40%
Ronaldo Caiado 40%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 39%
Clariana Barao 39%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Renan Santos
40%
Ronaldo Caiado
40%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
39%
Clariana Barao
39%
Hertz Dias
39%
Flavio Bolsonaro
38%
Pablo Marçal
38%
Edmilson Costa
38%
Escritor Augusto Cury
38%
Samara
37%
Zema
34%
Rui Costa Pimenta
11%
Lula
42%
Renan Santos 40%
Ronaldo Caiado 40%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 39%
Clariana Barao 39%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Renan Santos
$9 Vol.
40%
Ronaldo Caiado
$9 Vol.
40%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$9 Vol.
39%
Clariana Barao
$9 Vol.
39%
Hertz Dias
$9 Vol.
39%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9 Vol.
38%
Pablo Marçal
$9 Vol.
38%
Edmilson Costa
$9 Vol.
38%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$9 Vol.
38%
Samara
$9 Vol.
37%
Zema
$9 Vol.
34%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$9 Vol.
11%
Lula
$83 Vol.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates, including incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others, has kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 40% for the top contenders in Minas Gerais' first-round vote. Recent campaign launches ahead of the October 4 first round, combined with Zema's local profile as the outgoing governor of this key swing state and Santos' gains among younger voters via social media, sustain the close positioning. National polling averages show Lula leading but with support in the high 30s to low 40s amid the split opposition, while scheduled debates and state-specific turnout patterns could shift regional margins before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$191Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates, including incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others, has kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 40% for the top contenders in Minas Gerais' first-round vote. Recent campaign launches ahead of the October 4 first round, combined with Zema's local profile as the outgoing governor of this key swing state and Santos' gains among younger voters via social media, sustain the close positioning. National polling averages show Lula leading but with support in the high 30s to low 40s amid the split opposition, while scheduled debates and state-specific turnout patterns could shift regional margins before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$191Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates, including incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others, has kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 40% for the top contenders in Minas Gerais' first-round vote. Recent campaign launches ahead of the October 4 first round, combined with Zema's local profile as the outgoing governor of this key swing state and Santos' gains among younger voters via social media, sustain the close positioning. National polling averages show Lula leading but with support in the high 30s to low 40s amid the split opposition, while scheduled debates and state-specific turnout patterns could shift regional margins before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
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