Recent polling places Augusto Cury (Avante) near 6-7% in first-round scenarios for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, with support slipping from an August peak above 10% as the contest tightens between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Trader probabilities remain split between the 4-6% and 6%+ brackets because Cury’s gains have drawn from both major candidates yet remain soft, with roughly 40% of his backers still open to switching. Polarization and the approach of the campaign deadline are accelerating consolidation toward the frontrunners, while Cury’s social-media reach and television exposure have not yet produced durable gains among undecided or third-way voters. Further debates or late momentum shifts could alter the final margin before voting begins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato6%+ 38%
4-6% 35%
2-4% 22%
1-2% 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
<1%
4%
1-2%
8%
2-4%
22%
4-6%
35%
6%+
38%
6%+ 38%
4-6% 35%
2-4% 22%
1-2% 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
<1%
$56 Vol.
4%
1-2%
$40 Vol.
8%
2-4%
$411 Vol.
22%
4-6%
$135 Vol.
35%
6%+
$519 Vol.
38%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling places Augusto Cury (Avante) near 6-7% in first-round scenarios for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, with support slipping from an August peak above 10% as the contest tightens between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Trader probabilities remain split between the 4-6% and 6%+ brackets because Cury’s gains have drawn from both major candidates yet remain soft, with roughly 40% of his backers still open to switching. Polarization and the approach of the campaign deadline are accelerating consolidation toward the frontrunners, while Cury’s social-media reach and television exposure have not yet produced durable gains among undecided or third-way voters. Further debates or late momentum shifts could alter the final margin before voting begins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,160Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling places Augusto Cury (Avante) near 6-7% in first-round scenarios for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, with support slipping from an August peak above 10% as the contest tightens between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Trader probabilities remain split between the 4-6% and 6%+ brackets because Cury’s gains have drawn from both major candidates yet remain soft, with roughly 40% of his backers still open to switching. Polarization and the approach of the campaign deadline are accelerating consolidation toward the frontrunners, while Cury’s social-media reach and television exposure have not yet produced durable gains among undecided or third-way voters. Further debates or late momentum shifts could alter the final margin before voting begins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$1,160Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling places Augusto Cury (Avante) near 6-7% in first-round scenarios for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, with support slipping from an August peak above 10% as the contest tightens between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Trader probabilities remain split between the 4-6% and 6%+ brackets because Cury’s gains have drawn from both major candidates yet remain soft, with roughly 40% of his backers still open to switching. Polarization and the approach of the campaign deadline are accelerating consolidation toward the frontrunners, while Cury’s social-media reach and television exposure have not yet produced durable gains among undecided or third-way voters. Further debates or late momentum shifts could alter the final margin before voting begins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Flávio Bolsonaro otterrà il 39% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
73%
Sì
Renan Santos otterrà tra il 2% e il 4% dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
35%
Sì
Lula otterrà il 44% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
42%
Sì
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