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icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?
Mondo·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?

icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?
Mondo·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?

2-4% 41%

4-6% 28%

<2% 15%

6-8% 14.4%

Polymarket
NUOVO

2-4% 41%

4-6% 28%

<2% 15%

6-8% 14.4%

Polymarket
NUOVO

<2%

$575 Vol.

15%

2-4%

$1,631 Vol.

41%

4-6%

$1,927 Vol.

28%

6-8%

$465 Vol.

14%

8%+

$2,106 Vol.

13%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the Mission Party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting his position as a first-time candidate from a newly registered party with minimal free broadcast time and a small electoral fund. His digital-focused campaign targets younger voters and emphasizes security, fiscal pragmatism, and anti-establishment messaging, yet it competes against better-known right-wing figures including Flávio Bolsonaro. A late-August electoral court decision suspending aspects of his online advertising has further constrained visibility. These dynamics align trader consensus with the 2-4% range as the most probable outcome, while modest upside remains possible if debate performances or youth turnout exceed current trends.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,705
Data di fine
5 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place Renan Santos of the Mission Party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting his position as a first-time candidate from a newly registered party with minimal free broadcast time and a small electoral fund. His digital-focused campaign targets younger voters and emphasizes security, fiscal pragmatism, and anti-establishment messaging, yet it competes against better-known right-wing figures including Flávio Bolsonaro. A late-August electoral court decision suspending aspects of his online advertising has further constrained visibility. These dynamics align trader consensus with the 2-4% range as the most probable outcome, while modest upside remains possible if debate performances or youth turnout exceed current trends.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,705
Data di fine
5 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

Correlati

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro otterrà il 39% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

Flávio Bolsonaro otterrà il 39% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

87%
Sì
icon for Lula otterrà il 44% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

Lula otterrà il 44% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

44%
Sì
icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con meno del 5%?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con meno del 5%?

55%
Sì

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Domande frequenti

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 5 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "2-4%" a 41%, seguito da "4-6%" a 28%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 41¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Sep 15, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?", esplora i 5 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?" è "2-4%" a 41%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "4-6%" a 28%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: Renan Santos Vote Share?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.