**Traders assign a 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because justices enjoy lifetime tenure until age 75, with removal possible only through a Senate impeachment process requiring a two-thirds supermajority—a high institutional barrier that has blocked dozens of prior requests.** Opposition lawmakers, including Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and more recently Deputy Cabo Gilberto Silva, filed additional impeachment petitions as recently as August 2026 citing judicial actions in cases involving former President Jair Bolsonaro. None have advanced beyond filing. Moraes continues to exercise full authority, including May 2026 orders suspending congressional legislation that could shorten Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence and earlier rulings on prison conditions. These repeated attempts have produced no change in his status, consistent with the structural protections of STF appointments and the political dynamics in Congress. The market reflects this established pattern rather than any confirmed removal pathway.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
9% probabilità
$30,867 Vol.
$30,867 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
9% probabilità
$30,867 Vol.
$30,867 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign a 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because justices enjoy lifetime tenure until age 75, with removal possible only through a Senate impeachment process requiring a two-thirds supermajority—a high institutional barrier that has blocked dozens of prior requests.**
Opposition lawmakers, including Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and more recently Deputy Cabo Gilberto Silva, filed additional impeachment petitions as recently as August 2026 citing judicial actions in cases involving former President Jair Bolsonaro. None have advanced beyond filing. Moraes continues to exercise full authority, including May 2026 orders suspending congressional legislation that could shorten Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence and earlier rulings on prison conditions.
These repeated attempts have produced no change in his status, consistent with the structural protections of STF appointments and the political dynamics in Congress. The market reflects this established pattern rather than any confirmed removal pathway.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$30,867Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign a 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because justices enjoy lifetime tenure until age 75, with removal possible only through a Senate impeachment process requiring a two-thirds supermajority—a high institutional barrier that has blocked dozens of prior requests.**
Opposition lawmakers, including Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and more recently Deputy Cabo Gilberto Silva, filed additional impeachment petitions as recently as August 2026 citing judicial actions in cases involving former President Jair Bolsonaro. None have advanced beyond filing. Moraes continues to exercise full authority, including May 2026 orders suspending congressional legislation that could shorten Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence and earlier rulings on prison conditions.
These repeated attempts have produced no change in his status, consistent with the structural protections of STF appointments and the political dynamics in Congress. The market reflects this established pattern rather than any confirmed removal pathway.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,867Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 91% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because justices enjoy lifetime tenure until age 75, with removal possible only through a Senate impeachment process requiring a two-thirds supermajority—a high institutional barrier that has blocked dozens of prior requests.** Opposition lawmakers, including Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and more recently Deputy Cabo Gilberto Silva, filed additional impeachment petitions as recently as August 2026 citing judicial actions in cases involving former President Jair Bolsonaro. None have advanced beyond filing. Moraes continues to exercise full authority, including May 2026 orders suspending congressional legislation that could shorten Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence and earlier rulings on prison conditions. These repeated attempts have produced no change in his status, consistent with the structural protections of STF appointments and the political dynamics in Congress. The market reflects this established pattern rather than any confirmed removal pathway.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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