Recent September 2026 polling aggregates show Lula's first-round support clustered between 36% and 42%, with MDA/CNT at 40.5%, Datafolha at 39%, and Nexus at 42%, reflecting steady but not dominant positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. These figures, alongside a fragmented opposition led by Flavio Bolsonaro at 30-37%, shape trader views that Lula is unlikely to reach a first-round majority yet faces pressure from economic concerns, legal scrutiny on allies, and turnout dynamics that could lift or cap his share. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing aligns with this range while noting historical precedent for late shifts in Brazilian elections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato44%+ 34%
41-44% 32%
<35% 18%
38-41% 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
<35%
18%
35-38%
14%
38-41%
15%
41-44%
32%
44%+
34%
44%+ 34%
41-44% 32%
<35% 18%
38-41% 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
<35%
$0 Vol.
18%
35-38%
$0 Vol.
14%
38-41%
$0 Vol.
15%
41-44%
$40 Vol.
32%
44%+
$221 Vol.
34%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September 2026 polling aggregates show Lula's first-round support clustered between 36% and 42%, with MDA/CNT at 40.5%, Datafolha at 39%, and Nexus at 42%, reflecting steady but not dominant positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. These figures, alongside a fragmented opposition led by Flavio Bolsonaro at 30-37%, shape trader views that Lula is unlikely to reach a first-round majority yet faces pressure from economic concerns, legal scrutiny on allies, and turnout dynamics that could lift or cap his share. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing aligns with this range while noting historical precedent for late shifts in Brazilian elections.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volume
$261Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September 2026 polling aggregates show Lula's first-round support clustered between 36% and 42%, with MDA/CNT at 40.5%, Datafolha at 39%, and Nexus at 42%, reflecting steady but not dominant positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. These figures, alongside a fragmented opposition led by Flavio Bolsonaro at 30-37%, shape trader views that Lula is unlikely to reach a first-round majority yet faces pressure from economic concerns, legal scrutiny on allies, and turnout dynamics that could lift or cap his share. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing aligns with this range while noting historical precedent for late shifts in Brazilian elections.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$261Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent September 2026 polling aggregates show Lula's first-round support clustered between 36% and 42%, with MDA/CNT at 40.5%, Datafolha at 39%, and Nexus at 42%, reflecting steady but not dominant positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. These figures, alongside a fragmented opposition led by Flavio Bolsonaro at 30-37%, shape trader views that Lula is unlikely to reach a first-round majority yet faces pressure from economic concerns, legal scrutiny on allies, and turnout dynamics that could lift or cap his share. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing aligns with this range while noting historical precedent for late shifts in Brazilian elections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Flávio Bolsonaro otterrà il 39% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
39%
Sì
Renan Santos otterrà tra il 2% e il 4% dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
41%
Sì
Augusto Cury otterrà il 6% o più dei voti validi al primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?
43%
Sì
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