The absence of any Department of Justice indictments or formal criminal proceedings against sitting Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has sustained trader expectations that federal charges will not occur. Recent U.S. actions have instead centered on preparing an indictment against former leader Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, while expanding sanctions on Cuban officials and entities for human rights violations. These measures, including prior designations targeting Díaz-Canel, reflect ongoing policy pressure on the regime through diplomatic and economic channels rather than criminal prosecution of the current head of state. Jurisdictional barriers to charging foreign government leaders and the lack of further DOJ signals through mid-May 2026 reinforce the prevailing consensus ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date.