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icon for Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?
Mondo·Germania

Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?

icon for Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?
Mondo·Germania

Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?

Nessun nuovo Cancelliere prima del 2028 54%

Hendrik Wüst 16%

Markus Söder 13%

Boris Pistorius 8%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Nessun nuovo Cancelliere prima del 2028 54%

Hendrik Wüst 16%

Markus Söder 13%

Boris Pistorius 8%

Polymarket
NUOVO
icon for Nessun nuovo Cancelliere prima del 2028

Nessun nuovo Cancelliere prima del 2028

$2,234 Vol.

54%

icon for Hendrik Wüst

Hendrik Wüst

$275 Vol.

16%

icon for Markus Söder

Markus Söder

$649 Vol.

13%

icon for Boris Pistorius

Boris Pistorius

$476 Vol.

8%

icon for Katharina Dröge

Katharina Dröge

$156 Vol.

5%

icon for Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel

$200 Vol.

4%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$153 Vol.

4%

icon for Felix Banaszak

Felix Banaszak

$340 Vol.

3%

icon for Lars Klingbeil

Lars Klingbeil

$128 Vol.

3%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$120 Vol.

3%

icon for Sahra Wagenknecht

Sahra Wagenknecht

$146 Vol.

3%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$128 Vol.

2%

icon for Jens Spahn

Jens Spahn

$145 Vol.

6%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election results and national polling have intensified speculation over a possible CDU-internal chancellor swap before the next federal vote in 2029, yet the slight edge for no change before 2028 reflects the structural barriers to an early transition. Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered sharp losses in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, where the AfD reached 43.8 percent, while Merz’s approval ratings remain low and upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20 serve as immediate tests. Eight CDU state premiers publicly backed Merz, and no senior figure has launched an open challenge, though Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder are most frequently cited as potential successors in internal discussions. A swap would require either voluntary resignation or a constructive vote of no confidence while preserving the current coalition, both of which remain uncertain amid warnings that personnel debates could further strengthen the AfD.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,149
Data di fine
1 gen 2028
Mercato aperto
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election results and national polling have intensified speculation over a possible CDU-internal chancellor swap before the next federal vote in 2029, yet the slight edge for no change before 2028 reflects the structural barriers to an early transition. Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered sharp losses in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, where the AfD reached 43.8 percent, while Merz’s approval ratings remain low and upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20 serve as immediate tests. Eight CDU state premiers publicly backed Merz, and no senior figure has launched an open challenge, though Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder are most frequently cited as potential successors in internal discussions. A swap would require either voluntary resignation or a constructive vote of no confidence while preserving the current coalition, both of which remain uncertain amid warnings that personnel debates could further strengthen the AfD.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,149
Data di fine
1 gen 2028
Mercato aperto
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

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Domande frequenti

"Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 13 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Nessun nuovo Cancelliere prima del 2028" a 54%, seguito da "Hendrik Wüst" a 16%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 54¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 54% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Sep 15, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?", esplora i 13 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?" è "Nessun nuovo Cancelliere prima del 2028" a 54%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 54% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Hendrik Wüst" a 16%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Il prossimo Cancelliere della Germania prima del 2028?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.