The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will determine the next Senate composition through coalition negotiations after voters allocate 130 seats via mixed-member proportional representation. The incumbent CDU-SPD government under Mayor Kai Wegner faces pressure from recent polling averages showing a fragmented field, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD each between roughly 12% and 22%. AfD gains have narrowed gaps but coalition barriers persist due to the established firewall among other parties. Key variables include turnout among new voters, performance of smaller parties like BSW, and post-election arithmetic for viable majorities, with district assembly results on the same day adding local context.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
31 dic 2026
Verdi
88%
SPD
85%
CDU
61%
Linke
57%
AfD
6%
FDP
6%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
$2,677 Vol.
Verdi
$83 Vol.
88%
SPD
$104 Vol.
85%
CDU
$159 Vol.
61%
Linke
$234 Vol.
57%
AfD
$1,098 Vol.
6%
FDP
$146 Vol.
6%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
FW
$573 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will determine the next Senate composition through coalition negotiations after voters allocate 130 seats via mixed-member proportional representation. The incumbent CDU-SPD government under Mayor Kai Wegner faces pressure from recent polling averages showing a fragmented field, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD each between roughly 12% and 22%. AfD gains have narrowed gaps but coalition barriers persist due to the established firewall among other parties. Key variables include turnout among new voters, performance of smaller parties like BSW, and post-election arithmetic for viable majorities, with district assembly results on the same day adding local context.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,677Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will determine the next Senate composition through coalition negotiations after voters allocate 130 seats via mixed-member proportional representation. The incumbent CDU-SPD government under Mayor Kai Wegner faces pressure from recent polling averages showing a fragmented field, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD each between roughly 12% and 22%. AfD gains have narrowed gaps but coalition barriers persist due to the established firewall among other parties. Key variables include turnout among new voters, performance of smaller parties like BSW, and post-election arithmetic for viable majorities, with district assembly results on the same day adding local context.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$2,677Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will determine the next Senate composition through coalition negotiations after voters allocate 130 seats via mixed-member proportional representation. The incumbent CDU-SPD government under Mayor Kai Wegner faces pressure from recent polling averages showing a fragmented field, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD each between roughly 12% and 22%. AfD gains have narrowed gaps but coalition barriers persist due to the established firewall among other parties. Key variables include turnout among new voters, performance of smaller parties like BSW, and post-election arithmetic for viable majorities, with district assembly results on the same day adding local context.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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